National Affairs: Senate Prospects

The U.S. Senate has 49 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including Wayne Morse). Thirty-seven places are up for election on Nov. 2, with 13 Southern Democrats certain to win and five G.O.P. seats—two in New Hampshire, one each in Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota—almost sure to stay Republican. There are 19 contests in which the outcome is more or less in doubt.

Where Republicans Lead. The G.O.P. appears likely to hold onto its Senate seats from Michigan, Massachusetts and Nebraska (where two are up, but only one is in serious contention). In Michigan, Democrat Patrick McNamara has had some good breaks, e.g., Defense Secretary Wilson's bird-dog remarks, but Republican Incumbent Homer Ferguson is holding on for dear life to an early lead. Nebraska's Republican Candidate Roman Hruska would be considered a good conservative in almost any other state; in Nebraska, his moderate tendencies have him in some trouble—although probably not enough for Democrat James Green to beat him. Massachusetts' Republican Senator Leverett Saltonstall is in a relatively strong position; he has compiled an innocuous Senate record that avoids giving offense, and he was helped by a split between Democratic Candidate Foster Furcolo and Democratic Senator John Kennedy.

Less promising is the Republican outlook in Idaho, where Senator Henry Dworshak, fresh from his sorry showing in the Army-McCarthy hearings, is being pressed by Glen Taylor, the Progressive Party's 1948 candidate for Vice President, who has yodeled his campaign message in the state's every nook and chasm.

Where Democrats Lead. Democratic Senators Hubert Humphrey in Minnesota, Clinton Anderson in New Mexico and Theodore Green in Rhode Island all are solid favorites, as is Colorado's Democratic Candidate John Carroll, running to succeed Ed Johnson.

Democrats have strong prospects for taking two seats presently held by Republicans. They are in Nevada and Wyoming. In the last decade, Nevada Republicans have won only with help from Democrat Pat McCarran, whose feuds within his own party sometimes caused him to support the G.O.P. By gubernatorial appointment, Republican Ernest S. Brown now tentatively holds the Senate place left vacant by McCarran's death. He will not get the necessary McCarranite votes; his opponent, Alan Bible, was one of the old man's most devoted followers.

Wyoming's former Democratic Senator Joseph O'Mahoney is campaigning to succeed Republican Edward Crippa, who is not running. O'Mahoney was defeated for re-election in 1952. But Republican Candidate William Henry Harrison has offered the voters little besides his great-greatgrandfather's name.

The Big Nine. The Democratic Party, therefore, stands to take a one-seat cushion (44 seats to 43) into the nine remaining Senate races. To gain a tie situation (in which Vice President Nixon's vote would give Republicans control of the Senate), the G.O.P. must win in five of these crucial contests:

DELAWARE. Republican Candidate Herbert Warburton is a good Eisenhower man, voted faithfully with the Administration while in the House. Incumbent Senator J. Allen Frear is a Southern-type Democrat. The school-segregation issue has hurt Warburton; so have low farm prices, especially in broilers. Frear probably leads in a close race.