POLITICAL NOTES: Poll Vaulting

POLITICAL NOTES Poll Vaulting On his swing through Oregon, Presidential Hopeful Nelson Rockefeller sprayed just a whiff of doubt that Vice President Richard Nixon could win enough independent and Democratic votes to win the presidential election (TIME, Nov. 23). Last week, in a visit to Rhode Island, he conceded that Nixon "probably" could win the election if it were held today. But, he added, "we can't foresee now what the circumstances will be a year from now."

Rocky's retreat came in the nick of time. Last week's Gallup polls showed the Vice President well ahead and gaining when matched against either the Democrats' first runner, Massachusetts' Jack Kennedy, or the noncampaigning ghostly challenger, Adlai Stevenson.

The Nixon-Kennedy race, according to Gallup:

July August November

Kennedy 61% 52% 47%

Nixon 39% 48% 53%

Against Stevenson:

July August November

Stevenson 56% 49% 44%

Nixon 44% 51% 56%

Unsurprisingly, Californian Nixon's greatest strength was in the Midwest and Far West, where he was running 55 to 45 ahead of Jack Kennedy. In Kennedy's own East, the gap was narrower, but Nixon led Kennedy, 52 to 48. Only in the South was Kennedy out front, but in that traditionally Democratic heartland, his margin was close enough to make a Democratic handicapper's hands grow clammy: Nixon, 48%; Kennedy, 52%.

And against Stevenson, the odds were greater: Nixon trailed by 49 to 51 in the South, led by a shoo-in margin of 57 to 43 in all other parts of the country.