India: The Tea-Fed Tiger

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Best chances for the opposition is in the state assemblies (see map). In Rajasthan, the Swatantra and Jana Sangh could topple the Congress leadership, and in West Bengal a leftist front could overthrow Congress. In the Punjab a Sikh separate language party threatens Congress for control of the Assembly. In Mysore, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar, Congress may lose some seats. In Parliament its victory is beyond question, though the opposition parties may win as many as 200 of the 494 seats.

Even though Congress will win, the election will still have considerable effect on national attitudes. The Congress Party's very amorphousness makes its members highly susceptible to the pressure of any opposition. If the Hindu-first Jana Sangh does well, it will influence conservative Hindu Congressmen. If the Swatantra scores or Menon does poorly, it will infuriate Nehru and immeasurably strengthen the conservative element within his own Cabinet. But if the rest of the opposition falters, the Communists by default could widen their power. Says the Swatantra's Rajagopalachari: "Whether we win or not, making the attempt to really oppose is worthwhile."

Like a great submissive bullock, India has plodded patiently in whichever direction Jawaharlal Nehru has driven it. It has not yet shown in which direction it would like to go itself. Whether it is ready to do so is the real issue of the election.