Russia: The Adventurer

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Explanation for Export. Since many in the West cling fondly to the view of Khrushchev as a moderate, one theory is that he was pushed into taking the Caribbean gamble, either by the military or by the so-called "hard line" or "Stalinist" group, which some experts suspect of strong and continuing influence. This, presumably, is just what Nikita would like the world to think. Some Western observers even go so far as to argue that if Khrushchev was forced into the Cuban move by "extremists," he is now in a better position than before, having proved the extremists wrong and presumably put them in their place.

Most longtime students of Soviet politics doubt this. They believe that there is still something like collective leadership in Russia, hence that Khrushchev may have been egged on by militarists—or for that matter, urged to be careful by the cautious. Certainly the man who has exploded a 50-megaton bomb in a test over the Arctic, might, by ordinary standards, be considered a hard-liner himself. On balance, there is reason to assume that Khrushchev was behind the Cuban project from start to finish.

The version being fed to the satellites and neutrals is that Khrushchev really believed on the basis of Soviet intelligence reports that a U.S. invasion of Cuba was imminent. He felt that the Russian people could not bear to witness the overthrow of what they now considered as a reincarnation of their own great 1917 socialist revolution. So, according to the ingenious but preposterous Moscow tale, a careful Russian plan was drawn up to ship the missiles to Cuba without secrecy, install them without camouflage. When Kennedy got word, he would make a fuss, presumably demand negotiations, in which the Russians would be able to extract a no-invasion guarantee for their pal Fidel.

The stakes, of course, were far too high for so far-fetched a motive. Many Communists apparently do not believe the story themselves. "The Soviets here are depressed and quite sensitive," reports a U.S. newsman from Bonn. "When they tell you that Khrushchev withdrew because the U.S. guaranteed the continued existence of Castro, they look quickly at your eyes to see if you buy that one. They really prefer not to talk about it."

An Unhappy Birthday. Khrushchev's real reasons were undoubtedly rooted in the severe problems Russia faces. With customary fanfare this week, Moscow celebrates the 45th anniversary of the Communist revolution. It is not a happy anniversary. In nearly half a century the country has made tremendous strides, to become one of the world's great industrial powers, but the life of the ordinary Russian is still drab and cramped. He dreams of material progress that is an everyday fact in the West, and it sometimes seems to him that it is easier for his country to orbit a cosmonaut than to turn out a decent pair of shoes. Despite killing, coaxing and collectivization, Russia has been unable to solve her agricultural problems, and still does not produce enough food to meet the needs of a rising population. The bitter ideological split with Red China has cracked open the façade of world Communist unity.