Republicans: Rockefeller's Parade

On the Beaufort Scale, a moderate breeze (Force 4) is one that merely raises "dust and loose paper." A Force 10 gale causes "considerable damage to buildings." Somewhere between the two must be a wind of sufficient force to waft a heavyweight politician into active presidential candidacy. But how to recognize the draft? "It is very difficult, believe me," Nelson Rockefeller admitted last week.

Nor was that the New York Governor's only problem. Having himself changed his political classification from 4F to 1A, Rockefeller felt no sudden, irresistible new pull toward the Republican nomination. Not yet, at least. Perhaps for this reason, he paraded his availability a bit more invitingly than before by acknowledging that he just might run against Richard Nixon in the Oregon primary. And the Governor summoned some two dozen Republican leaders from all over the country for a weekend meeting at his New York City apartment.

Rockefeller had earlier disclaimed any intention of entering the primaries, arguing that to do so would divide the G.O.P. But at a press conference last week, there was no talk of party unity. When asked about Oregon, as he knew he would be, Rockefeller measured his words carefully: "Well, I have no present intention of going in. But I have to say, in answer to your question, that I do not make a definitive statement ruling it out." Oregon, in fact, "is a subject I've got to study very carefully."

Center Summons. Rockefeller has un til March 22 to decide whether his name will be on the May 28 primary ballot. As matters now stand, Oregon will be his only opportunity for an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation with Nixon in a state where he has a good chance of winning. By no coincidence whatever, many Republicans from Governor Tom McCall down are firm Rockefeller supporters. They began organizing a draft movement in January, by last week had collected more than 31,000 signatures to have their man's name placed on the ballot by petition (only 1,000 are needed). Thus Rockefeller could justify his entry in Oregon on the basis of popular promptings. Besides his popularity in the state, Rockefeller would enjoy the asset of California Governor Ronald Reagan's presence on the ballot. Reagan, who last week reaffirmed his decision not to withhold his name, can only draw votes from Nixon.

Nationally, the picture is less clear. Attempts to organize local Rockefeller groups in a dozen or more states continued last week, but there was little overt activity of significance. His supporters in Congress were considering circulating a petition among Capitol Hill Republicans urging him to become an official candidate. However, there was difficulty in lining up a group broad and deep enough to make such a call meaningful. To have a petition come only from the party's liberal wing and signed principally by Easterners might hurt Rockefeller more than help him. What he needs is a summons from the party's center. Kentucky Senator Thruston Morton listed the progressive qualities that the G.O.P. candidate should have, and the description seemed to fit only Rockefeller. But Morton declined to name him. Said one Rockefeller recruiter: "Everybody has an excuse for holding back. That's the trouble with this party."