Essay: THE SENATE: Gains for the G.O.P., but Still Democratic and Liberal

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IT would take an electoral earthquake, not just a landslide on Nov. 5, to strip the Democrats of the majority they have enjoyed since 1955 in the U.S. Senate. When the 90th Congress adjourned, they had 63 members to 37 for the G.O.P. Only 34 of the Senate's 100 seats are to be filled this year, including the one that belongs to Louisiana Democrat Russell Long, who is unopposed. A week before Election Day, the outlook is for a G.O.P. gain of anywhere from two to nine seats. That would leave the Senate with a breakdown ranging from 54 Democrats and 46 Republicans to 61 Democrats and 39 Republicans.

A Nuisance. The 1969 freshmen are expected to give the chamber a marginally more conservative outlook. In general, however, the Senate will probably remain a liberal body—and a nuisance to the President if he is a conservative.

Four Democratic incumbents—Herman Talmadge of Georgia, Hawaii's Daniel Inouye, North Carolina's Sam Ervin and Ernest Hollings of South Carolina—Seem virtually assured of reelection. Democrat James Allen, a conservative Southerner, is a cinch to win the seat of Alabama's retiring Lister Hill. Five Republicans—Illinois' Everett Dirksen, New Hampshire's Norris Cotton, New York's Jacob Javits, Utah's Wallace Bennett and Vermont's George Aiken—are likewise rated as shoo-ins.

Democrats are counted as leaders in nine more states. One is California, where liberal Democrat Alan Cranston is far ahead of conservative Republican Max Rafferty in a battle for the seat of Thomas Kuchel, a G.O.P. liberal. Another is Connecticut, though Abe Ribicoff is being pressed unexpectedly hard by Republican Edwin May. Republicans lead in another six Senate races, with comparatively easy victories forecast in

Florida and Arizona for seats hitherto held by Democrats.

Muddying the outcome this year, however, are the presidential aspirations of George Wallace—even though no senatorial candidates are running on Wallace's American Independent Party ticket. How those casting ballots for Wallace and Curtis LeMay will vote for other offices, nobody knows. Yet their votes could prove decisive in neck-and-neck contests in seven states—Iowa, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, Oklahoma and Oregon. Alaska is also rated a tossup, because of a write-in campaign for 81 -year-old Democratic Senator Ernest Gruening, who was unseated in a primary by Real Estate Developer Mike Gravel. The write-in greatly enhances the hopes of Elmer Rasmuson, Republican mayor of Anchorage. Some significant contests:

NEW YORK: Democratic Debacle

New York's divisive Democrats relish a bruising battle—particularly when it is among themselves. Their 1968 performance is typical. Irish-born Attorney Paul O'Dwyer, 61, brother of the late mayor of New York William O'Dwyer and an early supporter of Senator Eugene McCarthy's presidential bid, adamantly shuns Hubert Humphrey and the national Democratic ticket, refusing to compromise his single-minded opposition to the Viet Nam conflict. Party regulars are supporting him lukewarmly if at all. Despite a loyal army of 25,000 youthful McCarthyite volunteers, O'Dwyer seems certain to furnish liberal Republican Senator Jacob K. Javits, 64, with his biggest majority in a 22-year string of victories.