Which Way?

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Step-Up. Though the President so far has balked at a further step-up in the air war against the North, the South is another matter. To explore the present status of the U.S. military effort there, Defense Secretary Robert S. McNamara left Washington at week's end for his eighth visit to Saigon since 1961, accompanied by General Earle Wheeler, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and newly appointed Under Secretary of State Nicholas Katzenbach.

The last time McNamara was in Viet Nam, the U.S. had 180,000 men in the country and was just beginning to untangle the logistical lash-ups caused by the unprecedentedly swift buildup. This week he will find a force of 320,000 men who, in the eleven months that have intervened since his seventh visit, have kept the Reds from winning a single major battle, have 'discouraged them from mounting any attack in battalion strength or greater since March, and are finding that the badly hurt guerrillas are ever more willing to surrender. Seldom, if ever, have the Communist troops shown more willingness to drop their arms than in the 1st Air Cav's Operation Irving along the central coast, one of the most successful U.S. operations of the war (see THE WORLD). By next spring, the normal scheduled increase in U.S. strength will bring the number of troops to 400,000.

Faced with this prospect, it would seem that North Viet Nam's wisest move would be to seek a settlement rather than invite continued insupportable losses. Yet, ridiculous as it seems, there are indications that the North Vietnamese regime is convinced that Lyndon Johnson's war policy will be overwhelmingly repudiated by American voters on Nov. 8. Hanoi, misled by the noisy dissent of antiwar groups in the U.S., may well be in for a rude shock.

Two Options. Even so, there is every possibility that North Viet Nam's rulers will remain adamant in their refusal to negotiate. In that situation, the President will have to reconsider his options. Since withdrawal is out, they come down to two: aim for a stalemate or order a quantum intensification of the war effort—possibly in the air, certainly on the ground.

If the latter, commanders in the field insist that at least 750,000 men will be required to permit the allies to seal off the South's sievelike borders and to send perhaps two divisions into the Mekong Delta, the southernmost section of the country. "Something has got to be done in the delta or you aren't going to win this war," said a high-ranking U.S. officer in Saigon. "Half the people in the country live there. We've got to control the delta, but we haven't got the men to send in there now, even if the decision were made."

Unpalatable a decision as it may be, it is one that President Johnson must weigh as he packs his bags this week for his Asian journey.