Nation: DEMOCRATIC COUNTDOWN

NINE weeks before the Democratic Convention in Chicago, Vice President Hubert Humphrey is in easy reach of a first ballot victory. 341 delegates are already committed to Humphrey and 995½ lean toward him but could conceivably turn elsewhere. Needed to nominate: 1,312. Senator Eugene McCarthy's 322½ committed votes are augmented by a mere 105½ votes leaning in his direction. The remaining 857½ votes could flow either way. They include 338 votes for favorite sons who could declare for Humphrey even before the first ballot. The probable first-ballot roll call of delegates as reported by TIME correspondents in all 50 states:

Alabama (32 votes): George Wallace has 17½ certain votes, may wind up with 21. Hubert Humphrey has 1½ for sure, with 9 more leaning his way. Half a vote is still uncommitted.

Alaska (22): Humphrey is likely to win all 22 under Alaska's unit rule.

Arizona (19): Humphrey can tally 14½ committed votes, with 4½ likely to end in Eugene McCarthy's column.

Arkansas (33): Humphrey is expected to capture them all when delegates are chosen this week.

California (174): One each for Humphrey and McCarthy. Robert Kennedy's friends are keeping the other 172 votes uncommitted for now.

Colorado (35): With 18 delegates yet to be chosen, 12 are committed or leaning to McCarthy, 5 to Humphrey.

Connecticut (44): A walkout by 5 McCarthy delegates reduces the state's delegation to 39 votes—all leaning to Humphrey unless the squabble is resolved by compromise or court order.

Delaware (22): Mark 22 leaning to Humphrey.

Florida (63): Favorite Son George Smathers will probably release at least 49 of his 57 votes to Humphrey, who has 2 votes already committed. McCarthy has 4.

Georgia (43): When Governor Lester Maddox gets around to choosing, Humphrey can expect all 43.

Hawaii (26): A clean sweep likely for H.H.H.

Idaho (25): Humphrey has 23 votes, McCarthy 2.

Illinois (118): All for Humphrey but 2 McCarthy votes.

Indiana (63): 55 should go to H.H.H., 8 to McCarthy.

Iowa (46): Humphrey expects 9½ votes, McCarthy 7; the rest are still uncommitted.

Kansas (38): Bound by the unit rule, all lean to Humphrey.

Kentucky (46): When the delegation is chosen next month, 42 votes should be in Humphrey's column and 4 in McCarthy's.

Louisiana (36): Favorite Son Governor John McKeithen should deliver all to Humphrey.

Maine (27): Humphrey leads with 12 probable votes to McCarthy's 2 probables; 13 are uncommitted.

Maryland (49): All Humphrey's.

Massachusetts (72): All are committed to McCarthy on the first ballot, but many are likely to switch later to the Vice President.

Michigan (96): Humphrey can count on 63.04 votes, McCarthy on only 2.82; there are 30.14 undecided votes.*

Minnesota (52): In a contest of favorite sons, Hubert leads by 38½ votes to Eugene's 13½.

Mississippi (24): Humphrey can count on 24 reluctant supporters unless Wallace proves a spoiler and gets them.

Missouri (60): A unit rule keeps all 60 leaning to Humphrey.

Montana (26): Hubert is favored to take 22 votes v. 2 for McCarthy. Montana's two Senators have not yet made up their minds.

Nebraska (30): Humphrey should get 16 votes and McCarthy 6; the rest are uncommitted.