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The Monetary System: What's Wrong and What Might Be Done
THE European money crisis only dramatized what many experts have long regarded as an unassailable dictum: the free world's monetary system is overdue for an overhaul. That systemthe internationally agreed basis for exchanging one currency for anotherwas born 24 years ago in the resort town of Bretton Woods, N.H. Imbued with a sense of wartime unity and mindful that competitive currency devaluations had deepened and prolonged the Depression of the '30s, the delegates from 45 nations took only three weeks to devise the fundamentals.
They agreed that gold would remain the primary international asset by which nations settle their debts with one another. The U.S. dollar, then backed by 57% of the free world's nationally held supply of gold, would be the key currency. Under that arrangement, then and today, other nations value their money in terms of the U.S. dollar, which is itself valued in terms of gold. The dollar's acceptability in world finance rests on the U.S. Treasury's pledge to redeem dollars held by foreign governments for gold at an unchanging $35 per oz.
Also out of Bretton Woods came the Washington-based International Monetary Fund, the arbiter of exchange rates. Written into the IMF articles of agreement, and binding upon its 111 member nations, is a proviso that no country may devalue its currency without IMF permission. In practice, the IMF allows devaluation only when economic misfortune (almost always inflation) strips a currency of its hitherto established value. Barring devaluation, every IMF nation must buy, sell or borrow foreign currenciesin practical terms, dollarsin sufficient quantity to keep its own money within 1% of its declared worth.
Though the fact is little understood outside the field of banking and professional economics, the peoples of the Western world owe their rising living standard in large part to the monetary system that now shows increasing signs of fragility. There are at least two separate, but related, troubles. The volume of world trade is rising far more quickly than the global supply of gold. To overcome that gap, the IMF last year devised a sort of "paper gold"a new international money called "special drawing rights." Use of the SDKs, as they are called, awaits ratification by nations that contribute at least 80% of the IMF's $21 billion bankroll.
The second problemthe one that caused last week's tremorsis the main, and perhaps mortal weakness of the monetary system. While nations that belong to the IMF are obliged to try to keep their currency-exchange rates steady, there is no stipulation that they keep their international payments in balance at the prevailing exchange rate. The result is all too frequent imbalances in international payments, which put new strains on the monetary system.
As inexorably as surf beating upon sand, prolonged payments deficits erode confidence in the value of currencies. France's current difficulties spring from soaring wage rates, the price of quelling last June's student-worker uprising. Whatever their specific cause, enduring payments deficits expose a weakness that political leaders are understandably loath to recognize: lack of economic selfdiscipline.
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