Japan: The Thermometer

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To a far greater degree than in the U.S., Japanese department-store sales are considered to be a highly reliable thermometer of the national economy. Between 1955 and 1964, Japan's G.N.P. soared by an annual average of 14% ; during that same period, department-store sales rose by 13% a year. In '65, when an inevitable slowdown set in, the growth rate of the national economy and the 156 members of the national Department Store Association (21 of them in Tokyo) suffered similarly. Thus, last week, when word came out that July department-store sales in Tokyo were up 11.9% over last year (to a projected annual total of $1 billion), all of Japan took the announcement as an indication that the nation was out of the doldrums.

Maybe so, maybe not. Certainly contributing to the resurgence of the department stores is Japanese merchandising ingenuity. Last week, to promote its display of alligator-skin handbags, shoes and other items, Mitsukoshi had 18 live alligators penned up on the seventh floor of its Tokyo store; to put customers "in the right summertime buying mood," Matsuya features an eye-riveting display of surfboards, even though the average sales record is only one a week.

As of last week, each of Tokyo's department stores was drawing an average of 40,000 people a day. Therefore, in anticipation of a bright and beautiful tomorrow, most Japanese department stores are plowing back their profits into plant expansion. It remains to be seen whether the Japanese economy as a whole will follow its longtime department-store thermometer.