The Campaign: A Question of How Big

Experts of every description—politicians and pundits, sociologists and foreign ministers—will dissect exhaustively the results of the 1966 midterm election in the U.S. Yet as the campaign moved into its final days, few could agree on any hard estimate of the outcome.

At stake are myriad local offices ranging from county sheriff to township assessor, more than 6,800 state legislative posts, 35 governorships, 35 U.S. Senate seats and all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. According to the polls, many Americans—up to 30% in certain races—have lodged themselves squarely in the "undecided" column, which could reflect a simmering, silent dissatisfaction within the electorate or merely a reluctance to size up the issues and candidates.

A Major Issue. There are a number of visible national issues. Housewives are generally unhappy about high food prices (see U.S. BUSINESS); businessmen and farmers are restive over tight money; many voters remain vaguely uneasy over the course of the Viet Nam war. Yet none of these attitudes by itself portends a great national shift of votes. While inflation is no doubt a factor in some contests, it has been defused, at least partially by the prevalence of high wages and prosperity.

Instead, the major issue may prove to be the largely unspoken but undeniable reaction of many white Americans against the Negro's gains and demands in the civil rights movement, an emotion-charged response encompassed by the catchall phrase "white backlash." A recent Republican poll shows that more than half the U.S. electorate feels that the Democratic Administration has moved too fast on civil rights; equally significant, some 60% of all Negroes acknowledge that their cause has been damaged by recent rioting and black-power militance. The race issue endangers liberals of both parties—a fact, ironically enough, that alarms organized labor, which itself all too often tolerates lily-white unions. 'Who can tell," asks one labor leader, "what this madness is going to do?"

Both parties are concentrating on congressional races, particularly for the 48 Democratic seats wrested from the G.O.P. in the 1964 Johnson landslide. With off-year elections traditionally favoring the out party, estimates of G.O.P. gains range all the way from ten to 75 seats. Conceding that the loss of even 25 seats could stall the Great Society, Democratic leaders are nonetheless confident that most of their freshmen Congressmen, beneficiaries of circumstance in 1964, can now hold their own. Says one L.B.J. aide: "They're our great plus factor this election."