The War: Thunder from a Distant Hill

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could increase its 525,000-man force to some 750,000—or even more, but only if the President is willing to call up the reserves and step up draft calls. Otherwise, the present force is likely to remain stable. To ease pressure on the Marines at the DMZ, the U.S. could stage an Inchon-style landing north of the 17th parallel, silence the guns that are raking Con Thien and Gio Linh, and pull out again. And, as the Joint Chiefs unanimously recommend, bombers could mine Haiphong harbor—a proposal that has consistently been rejected by Johnson, Mc-Namara and Dean Rusk. Were Haiphong choked off, argues Joint Chief Chairman General Earle Wheeler, most of the $1-billion-a-year flow of arms from Russia would dry up and the war would end in a "relatively" short time.

The danger that any intensification of the war could prompt Chinese intervention has receded with the turmoil brought on by Peking's Proletarian Cultural Revolution, but it has not disappeared. As for increasing the bombing, there is a hazard that it would stir hope in the U.S. that a little more bombing will end the war—and thus pave the way for a later letdown and demands for peace at any price.

∙CONTINUE THE PRESENT STRATEGY. Those who support a continuation of the Administration's course argue that its policies have just begun to pay off. When the U.S. went into Viet Nam in force 30 months ago, its object was to avert an imminent Viet Cong victory. Now, says Westmoreland, "the enemy is in the worst posture he has been in since the war started." Admittedly, pacification is lagging woefully, and the South's army, officered largely by opportunists or languid political appointees, is a major weakness. Nonetheless, the Communists have lost ten times more men than the U.S. since 1961, and have yet to win a major battle against the Americans. And the foundations for representative government have been laid in the South and beyond its borders.

The continuation of the bombing is an intrinsic part of this strategy. North Viet Nam this year is importing 2,050,000 metric tons of supplies—an increase of one-third over 1966—of which U.S. bombers prevent an estimated 30% from reaching the South. The air raids have disrupted highways, bridges, rail lines and infiltration routes, so that at least one out of eight men ordered South never makes it. Moreover, 500,000 civilians have been diverted to undo what the bombers have done. While Haiphong harbor is still a prohibited target, the bombing of adjacent bridges, warehouses and marshaling yards has reduced the port to chaos; last week the one intact bridge leading out of the city was cut, thereby isolating Haiphong until the repair crews get to work. The bombing has not completely choked off men and supplies, but the military never expected it to do so.

Mincing Machine. In the current political climate, it is questionable how long Johnson can maintain his more-of-the-same stance. Certainly, he has the resources to outlast Ho Chi Minh, whose industries and agriculture are under intense pressure from the bombing. Indeed, some officials wonder that Ho has not taken stock and simply called off the war. If he did, the U.S. might pull out so rapidly that the Communists could take over at their convenience—and it is highly doubtful that any U.S. Administration would ever send troops back to challenge them.