Nation: Heirs Apparent

The quickest way to change Lyndon Johnson's mind about a high-level appointment is to predict who the man will be. In the case of a successor to Robert McNamara, newsmen and Washington officials alike were doubly leary of trying to read the President's mind. Even so, more than a few observers were warily—and hopefully—raising the name of Cyrus Roberts Vance, the former Deputy Defense Secretary whom Johnson had drafted for an arduous diplomatic assignment in Cyprus (see THE WORLD) well after Mc-Namara's departure was decided.

Despite the vexed outcome of the latest Vance mission, the fact that L.B.J. had chosen him not only to supervise the U.S. Army during the Detroit riots last summer, but to mediate the latest Mediterranean mix-up as well, vouched for the President's trust in the handsome, lanky lawyer. Lyndon has said he would like a man experienced in government to succeed McNamara—and Vance is clearly experienced.

Alter Ego. A Yale-educated West Virginian, Vance, 50, arrived on the Washington scene in 1957 to help draft the Space Act, then was chosen as special counsel to the Senate Preparedness Investigating Subcommittee, chaired by L.B.J. After the Democratic accession in 1961, Vance became general counsel to McNamara, moved up to Secretary of the Army a year later. During his 18 months in that post, and later as Deputy Secretary, he supervised the revitalization of the Army and other "cost-effective" reforms as McNamara's discreet alter ego. Vance's health is a limitation in the grinding job of Defense Secretary: the back ailment that forced his retirement earlier this year is so painful that he often cannot bend over to tie his shoelaces.

Around Vance swirls a galaxy of other potential successors. Air Force Secretary Harold Brown, 40, a latter-day McNamara "whiz kid," headed Pentagon research and engineering during such McNamaran renovations as the MBT battle tank, the C5A air transport, and the Minuteman II ballistic missile. The current Deputy Secretary, Paul Nitze, 60, is a capable aide but perhaps too old. Johnson might also reach far afield for a successor, tapping such a respected private-sector servant as Charles ("Tex") Thornton, 54, board chairman of Litton Industries and one of the original World War II whiz kids.

L.B.J. & F.D.R. Or, with an election year approaching, L.B.J. might be inclined to emulate F.D.R., who picked a Republican, Henry Stimson, to head the war effort before the bitterly contested 1940 election campaign. Indeed, the war seems the major catalyst bearing on Johnson's decision—and raises the question whether Secretary of State Dean Rusk, who after seven years in so demanding a post must be as tired as McNamara, might not also be leaving soon.

Though the President has the utmost trust in Rusk, his departure would allay criticism of the Administration as effectively as McNamara's doubtless will —for awhile. Both are damned by dissidents as architects of the war. The all-purpose candidate for either post might well be former Presidential Adviser McGeorge Bundy, 48. A Republican who worked for Kennedy and Johnson and was tapped for duty by L.B.J. during the Arab-Israeli war last summer, his vigorous voice is still being raised in effective support of Johnsonian policies.