The War: The High Cost Of Maintaining Appearances

"War is a continuation of diplomacy by other means," declared the 19th century Prussian strategist Karl von Clausewitz in his famous aphorism. He would well appreciate what the Communists are up to on the battlefields of South Viet Nam these days. In military terms, the war is largely a standoff, with no prospect in sight that either side can deliver a knockout punch to the other. But to help out the Communists negotiating with the U.S. in Paris, the North Vietnamese and Viet Cong have adopted what might be called a strategy of appearances.

They seem willing to take enormous casualties in largely futile military thrusts in the hope of creating enough havoc—and enough headlines—to improve their bargaining position. They are also interested in keeping American casualty rates high: last week Saigon announced that 562 Americans had died in the week ending May 11, a record weekly total for the war.

Only a strategy aimed at maintaining appearances can explain the recent "second Tet" attack on Saigon. Two weeks before it started, the highest ranking defector to come over to the allied side, Lieut. Colonel Tran Van Dae, brought with him the complete battle plan. Nonetheless, the Communists attacked, launching 26 battalions toward the city, more than twice as many as employed during Tet. With the allies waiting, it was a lemming-like march to almost certain destruction. Not a major unit got inside Saigon proper. Many of the attackers were so youthful and green and recently infiltrated that they got lost en route. Some 5,000 were killed, and another defector, North Vietnamese Regimental Commander Lieut. Colonel Truong Trung Doan, surrendered because he had been ordered to make suicidal attacks. Militarily, Tet II was disastrously expensive for the enemy. But it did inflict severe new wounds on Saigon and its people. Moreover, Hanoi got its headlines, its pictures of whole blocks on fire and of the suffering of the capital's 60,000 newly homeless refugees. As a postscript, and to celebrate Ho Chi Minh's 78th birthday, the Communists last week launched a fresh shelling of Saigon; one rocket narrowly missed the palace, where President Nguyen Van Thieu and his family were sleeping.

Protective String. The allies look for a series of Communist attempts at "spectaculars" over the coming months, to accompany the peace talks in Paris. They believe that next on the target list is the provincial capital of Kontum in the Central Highlands, where the Communists nearly cut Viet Nam in half just before the U.S. buildup in 1965. Within a month, the U.S. also expects another division-size thrust across the Demilitarized Zone, aimed at the Camp Carroll artillery base and perhaps sliding off toward Khe Sanh again. The allies anticipate more trouble for the Marine base at Danang, and within three months perhaps even another attempt on Saigon.