POLITICAL NOTES: Roosevelt, Farley & Co.

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This information is supplemented by maps showing in blue and pink how every one of the 3,000 counties in the U. S. voted in 1934, by tables showing how every Congressman voted on New Deal bills. It is simple for Mr. Hurja to find out from these records how deserving of patronage is any politician, how badly he needs help from Party headquarters in his campaign for reelection, how much help he has given the Party in the past.

All this is not an academic pastime for Mr. Hurja. With his black book in hand he sits thumbing the pages and tells the Democratic high command: "We have this State sure—waste no effort on it." "We are certainly going to lose that State—ignore it." "Now here's a doubtful State that may be won or lost!" To Boss Farley who directs the flow of campaign funds, to the President who has a speech to make, a WPA project to announce, such advice is invaluable.

With all this detailed information at his private command, Emil Hurja probably knows better than any man in the country today the answer to the question: "What chance has Roosevelt of being beaten?"

Last week in the March American Mercury Henry Louis Mencken flayed Franklin Roosevelt, with a blistering summary of the New Deal which closed with the statement: "There was a time when the Republicans were scouring the country for a behemoth to pit against him. Now they begin to grasp the fact that if they can beat him at all, which seems most likely, they can beat him with a Chinaman, or even a Republican."

The Literary Digest last week published a supplement to its main poll on approval of the New Deal (TIME, Jan. 6), showing that of 21,600 clergymen, 70% were opposed to it. This result tended to confirm the verdict of many an oldtime politician that President Roosevelt, because he backed Repeal, tolerated two divorces in his family, goes fishing on Sunday and rarely mentions God in public, will lose considerable support from the Church next autumn.

Over the radio last week Gifford Pinchot of Pennsylvania, who was distinctly New Dealish two years ago, openly broke with Franklin Roosevelt, saying: "As a radio speaker he is a wonder. As a business executive he is a flop."

These front-page events of last week hardly stirred Emil Hurja at all. He calculates political pressure, not by the daily surge of press headlines, but by a dispassionate dipping into public sentiment far from the source of the immediate excitement. When Mr. Hurja looks in his black book, holding it close to his vest like a poker player, and says in a flat voice, "Roosevelt can lick Talmadge 4-to-1 in Florida," or "There is not a single Republican candidate who can carry his own state against Roosevelt," he is apt to be believed by non-partisan visitors.