POLITICAL NOTES: Roosevelt, Farley & Co.

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In the West he is on more questionable ground. Of the 18 states in that area, the Gallup poll classifies Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Nebraska, Iowa, North Dakota, Missouri, with 93 electoral votes, as "Definitely Democratic." Thus Mr. Hurja might compose a table:

States Votes

Sure from the South. . . . 13 146

Likely from the West . . . 13 93

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239

Short of a majority: 27 votes.

All these reckonings, as Mr. Hurja well knows, are as of February 1936, not as of November 1936. If he were frankly to summarize his opponents' chances, he would probably list the six New England states, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware as the most likely pickings for Republicans. Another group, including Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, New York, West Virginia and Maryland, are open to fight. If the Republicans are to make any showing at all, these seven States must be carried. Thus Mr. Hurja might draw up a Republican table:

States Votes

New England et al. . . . . . 9 96

Debatable States. . . . . . . . 7 151

Total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247

Short of a majority: 19 votes.

If these two lineups should occur, the final result of the election would be determined in the remaining area where the Democrats are at present least strong, the Republicans least weak. That area, roughly bounded by the Mississippi and the Rocky Mountains, approximates the grain belt. There Kansas has 9 electoral votes, Minnesota, 11, South Dakota 4, Wisconsin 12, Wyoming 3, Colorado 6. Total: 45.

Before these States or their neighbors can turn the tide of the election, it will be necessary for Republicans first to gain much strength, to capture and consolidate much ground that is still highly debatable. This is exactly what Republicans hope that they will do when their candidate is picked at Cleveland. This, too, is exactly what Democrat Hurja & friends assume the Republicans will not be able to do, after the firm of Roosevelt, Farley & Co. really takes the field.