Foreign News: Before & After

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Prospect. As to the future, the following points can be made:¶ The Laborite majority is too small for effective government. The danger to the Labor government is not so much from desertion, because party discipline in Britain is much stronger than in the U.S. The graver danger is absenteeism, which is both customary and inevitable in the House of Commons. Some members of Parliament are also ministers. Their administrative duties often take them away from London. Illness can strike one side more than the other at a given time. Many M.P.s have other jobs, requiring their absence from the House. These factors leave any government with a majority of less than 20 at the mercy of the Opposition, which can call for a "snap division" and defeat the government on a serious issue, thus bringing about a new election. ¶But the Tories probably do not want a new election right away. Last week's turnout (84%) was so heavy that neither side has any hope of doing better next time with the stay-at-home vote. The 2.6 million Liberal votes are the only ones in sight which could now give either Labor or Conservatives a clear working majority. The British Institute of Public Opinion-before the election asked Liberals how they would vote if no Liberal candidates were in the field. Half said that they would not vote at all. Of the other half, a third said they would vote Labor and two-thirds Tory. If this is correct, the Tories would pick up from the Liberals a net of some 400,000 votes, enough to give them only the same kind of precarious majority Labor now has.

¶ The Tories say frankly (but privately) that they would rather be out by a hair than in by a hair. They (and many Labor leaders) expect an economic crisis in Britain this year. Tory strategy is to let Labor "carry the baby" until the crisis deepens, then bid for a big majority in another election. This might come between April and December 1950.

¶ Until that time, Labor can probably continue in office by avoiding controversial subjects, such as further action on nationalization.

¶ In foreign affairs there is no reason to expect Britain's voice to be weakened by the hairbreadth situation in the House of Commons. Bipartisan foreign policy is an old story in Britain. With both parties driving towards the center in domestic politics, a working foreign policy should be easily possible. Doctrinaire national socialism has contributed to British obstruction of European integration. This obstruction should be reduced in future months.