THE U. S. IN 1960: $6,180 a Year for tne Average Family

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WHAT kind of U.S. economy will a youngster now getting ready for college find when he gets out? What is the prospect for 1960?

Last week, in America's Needs and Resources: A New Survey, a Twentieth Century Fund research staff headed by Economist J. Frederic Dewhurst issued a 1,148-page statistical description of the present economy, plus a projection of what the U.S. would be like five years hence. Dewhurst's key prediction, on the assumption that U.S. peace arid prosperity will continue, is that 1960's gross national product will be $413.5 billion, up 29% from 1950, 16% from 1954. The U.S., with less than 7% of the world's population, already produces one-third of all the world's goods and services, almost one-half of all its factory products. U.S. total output in the 19403 was worth $2.9 trillion; for the 1950s $4.1 trillion is expected.

The forecasts are speculative at best, but in their widely read first survey, made during the 1940s, Dewhurst and associates erred on the conservative side, forecasting 1950's G.N.P. 7% below what it turned out to be.

POPULATION

The economy's predicted growth of 29% during the 1950s is based on population growth during the decade of 16% and a 12% growth in the labor force.

Among 1960's 177 million people will be 40% more five-to nine-year-olds than in 1950, 54% more 10-to 14-year-olds, 35% more oldsters over 70, but 12% fewer 25-to 29-year-olds (the Depression babies). In 1960 there will be 42 million schoolchildren, 50% more than in 1950. The present decade's marriages, down 20% from the 1940s, will create only 13.7% more families. The trend to the suburbs will continue during the decade; rural non-farm population will burgeon by more than one-third, to 43 million. California in 1960 will have a population of 14.6 million, a jump of 38.3% over 1950.

PRODUCTIVITY

By 1960 there will be 69 million jobs, 7.5 million more than in 1950. A drop of 2.3 hours in the non-farm workweek will put the average worker on a 36.5-hour week, but his productivity, while it can hardly match the last decade's 47% rise, is expected to be up 25%. National income per man-hour worked will be $2.68 (v. last year's $2.41).

FARMERS

By 1960, 6,700,000 farmers, only 9.3% of the labor force and 670,000 fewer than in 1950, will have brought into cultivation 35 million acres of new crop land. They will produce 21% more food, but work only 44 hours a week, three less than in 1950.

WEALTH

In 1960 individuals will be saving a smaller portion (5.5%) of their disposable income than they do today (7.7%). But gross private savings (including corporate) will have climbed 33% in the decade, to $62.5 billion, v. $52.8 billion last year. Gross capital investment will also be $62.5 billion in 1960, up a healthy 37% from 1954.

INCOME

Spendable per-household income in 1960 will reach a comfortable $5,600 a year, up 5% from 1954. Before-tax income per household will be $6,180. The tax bite will ease. While government costs will rise 15%, they will be paid for by soaring revenues from prosperous businesses. Personal taxes will drop from today's $32.9 billion to $29.6 billion. Social Security benefits will more than treble during the decade, reaching $4.4 billion in 1960.

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