National Affairs: CAN A CATHOLIC WIN?

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EVER since the mournful 1928 presidential-election showing of New York's Al Smith (87 electoral votes v. 444 for Herbert Hoover), the Democratic Party has generally accepted as political gospel this proposition: a Roman Catholic is a fatal liability on a national ticket and is therefore not to be considered.

But in the late preconvention season of 1956, two Catholics—Massachusetts Senator John Kennedy and New York Mayor Robert Wagner—rank high among Democratic vice-presidential possibilities. One reason: a confidential survey now in the hands of selected Democratic leaders, e.-g., Harriman Adviser Carmine De Sapio and Stevenson Campaign Manager James Finnegan (both Catholics). The survey's fundamental thesis: Democratic presidential chances in November may well depend upon getting a Catholic on the national ticket.

"Tke Al Smith Myth." The paper was prepared under the supervision of Connecticut's Democratic State Chairman John Bailey, himself a Catholic, who strongly favors a national ticket of Protestant* Adlai Stevenson and Kennedy. It concedes only that "Democratic margins in several [Southern] states might be diminished" if a Catholic were nominated for Vice President. It quickly adds: "It is apparent that a Democratic Catholic vice-presidential nominee, although admittedly prejudices would be stirred, would lose no electoral votes for the ticket simply because a handful of Southerners or Republicans would not support him."

Before Bailey's researchers could get on with their case, they had first to deal with the matter of Al Smith. "The 'Al Smith myth,' " says the paper, "is one of the falsest myths in politics. The year 1928 was a Republican year, regardless of who was on either ticket. It was a year for 'drys' like Hoover, not 'wets' like Smith."

All to Ike. The' Catholic vote, says the paper, is "far more important than its numbers—about one out of every four voters who turn out—because of its concentration in the key states and cities of the North." The paper lists 14 states with 261 electoral votes: New York (with population estimated at 32% Catholic), Pennsylvania (29%), Illinois (30%), New Jersey (39%), Massachusetts (50%), Connecticut (49%), Rhode Island (60%), California (22%), Michigan (24%), Minnesota (24%), Ohio (20%), Wisconsin (32%), Maryland (21%), and Montana (22%).

"In 1940, 13 of these states with 240 electoral votes went Democratic, without which the Democrats would have lost the election. In 1944, twelve of these states with 221 electoral votes went Democratic, without which the Democrats would have lost the election. In 1948, eight of these states with 125 electoral votes went Democratic, without which the Democrats would have lost the election.

"In 1952, none of these states went Democratic, all 261 of their electoral votes went to Eisenhower, thus making possible the first Republican victory in 24 years."