Business: The Look Ahead

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Every year-end since 1954, Chicago's First National Bank has invited top businessmen to peer into the coming year. Among predictions for 1960 last week:

Steel. Joseph L. Block, chairman of Inland Steel, predicted that, barring a new strike, the nation's mills will pour 70 million ingot tons in the first half, 130 million during the whole year, up from 92 million in 1959 and above the alltime high of 117 million in 1955.

Merchandising. Charles H. Kellstadt, president of Sears, Roebuck, expects that consumer durables, including autos, will rise 8% to 10% over 1959. Soft goods will rise 5%. Kellstadt said that a year ago he predicted this fall's retail business would be 5% better than last year. It turned out 7% better, so Sears is upping its own sights on sales growth next spring from 5% to 7% over 1959.

Retail Food. Food will continue to be "at least as great a bargain" through the first half of 1960, as it was during this year, said Franklin J. Lunding, chairman of the Jewel Tea Co.

Automobiles. Detroit is upping its estimate that 6,500,000 to 7,000,000 cars will be sold in 1960, including half a million imports, said W. C. Newberg, executive vice president of Chrysler Corp. No one is now thinking of a range much below 7,000,000 units. Reason for rising optimism: the large number of sales deferred by this fall's steel shortage, plus "the excitement over the new economy cars that has helped to stimulate sales in all other price classes."

Railroads. Rail traffic in the first half, said James L. Symes, chairman of the Pennsylvania Railroad, will be 5% to 7% over the first half of 1959, when the rails were still steaming out of the recession.