Torts: Outguessing the Jury

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"Litigation doesn't pay," says Cleveland Lawyer Philip J. Hermann. He means that it takes years to get a personal injury case to trial, and the delay makes it far better to settle out of court. But for how much? Fact is, most lawyers do not know; 50% of them, says Hermann, lose money in injury cases for both their clients and themselves.

Lawyer Hermann claims to be on the way to licking this problem with a unique if simple device: prediction tables based on the amount that juries actually award for all kinds of injuries all over the U.S. Put out by Hermann's new Jury Verdict Research, Inc., the tables are now consulted by 25,000 of the nation's 296,069 lawyers and by most insurance companies. Able to predict a probable jury award to within 7% accuracy, says Hermann, both sides can skip trial and settle immediately.

Hermann cites a typical plaintiff with a fractured femur suffered by slipping on an oily factory floor in Chicago. By consulting his four-volume tables, a lawyer figures the going verdict for a fractured femur as $13,500, with 5% more expectable in Chicago, which boosts the claim to $14,175. Unfortunately for the plaintiff, the factory has movies showing that he does not limp, which indicates a 27% cut, to $10,347.75. Since juries like round numbers, he asks for $10,000—and settles.

All this overlooks such unpredictable factors as the defendant's reputation or the plaintiff's sex appeal. But the technique could solve thousands of run-of-the-mill personal injury cases, the main road block in clogged U.S. courts. Meanwhile, Hermann's researchers have uncovered useful facts—for example, that 72% of all injury verdicts are for less than $10,000.

The best place to sue is Cincinnati, where jury awards are 30% above the national average. One of the worst places: Lansing, Mich., where awards sag 20% below the U.S. rate. Of all U.S. plaintiffs in negligence cases, 61.3% win. The top state recovery rate: Pennsylvania's 74.3%. In Philadelphia, it hits 78.3%.