Michigan: The Crazy Quilt

(3 of 3)

Playing the Numbers. As the campaign nears its end, politicians and pundits can only be fascinated by the crazy quilt of Michigan's voting patterns. They estimate the state at 35%-40% Democratic, 25%-30% Republican—leaving at least 30% as independent. So far, the independents seem to favor Romney. In all, labor (about 2,500,000 persons, including families, with some 1,000.000 votes) is 70% Democratic. The Negro bloc (700,000 persons) is expected to give its vote to Swainson, 9 to 1. The Polish bloc (400,000) ordinarily produces a heavily Democratic vote, but there may be considerable defection to Romney this time. Detroit, of course, will go for Swainson. But its populous suburbs will vote more heavily Republican than ever, if only because Swainson vetoed a bill that would have exempted suburban commuters from paying a Detroit-imposed income tax.

By most calculations, Romney holds a lead, now widening, now narrowing, over Swainson. If he wins, he will surely wake up the morning after Election Day as a prime prospect for the 1964 Republican presidential nomination. What happens after that will probably depend on how successfully George Romney meets Michigan's vast problems.