Republicans: No Enter, No Win

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The surveys stayed sad for New York's Nelson Rockefeller. Ever since his divorce and remarriage, his presidential popularity has been sagging —and last week the Gallup poll reported that things are getting worse, not better.

Among Republican voters, Rockefeller trailed Barry Goldwater last July in a presidential preference poll. Last week's Gallup survey had Rocky even farther behind, with Michigan's Governor George Romney moving up fast on the outside. The figures:

July

Now Goldwater 39% 39% Rockefeller 27% 22% Romney 14% 21%

Another Gallup canvass, this one taken in the once-solid Democratic South, also came as bad news to Rockefeller. It pitted Goldwater, Rocky and Romney against one another in a series of trial heats against President Kennedy. Of the three, Rocky was the only Republican who would fail to carry the region.* The statistics:

Goldwater 54%

Kennedy 38%

Romney 47%

Kennedy 40%

Kennedy 44%

Rockefeller 39%

To Rocky, vacationing most of last week at his Seal Harbor, Me., estate, such statistics could only portend disaster. There is, of course, no doubt that he means to seek the G.O.P. presidential nomination next year. But he had meant to play things fairly cautiously. And now, in the face of all the worsening word, he was forced to step up his schedule. On his direct orders, Rocky's aides last week fanned out about the nation to assure G.O.P. leaders that "we are in the fight all the way," and to say that Rocky would test his popularity in—at least—the New Hampshire presidential primary on March 10 and the California beauty contest on June 2.

Victories in those primaries would surely enhance Rocky's chances. But, at his present status of esteem, he is almost certainly whistling in the dark if he thinks that primary wins in those two carefully selected states will get him the Republican Party's 1964 presidential nomination. What he really needs is a sweep of almost all the states that hold presidential primaries. And if he doesn't enter 'em, he can't win 'em.