Iraq: Until the Next Coup

For a while last week it seemed impossible to tell who was up and who was down in Iraq. Perhaps the principals themselves were not sure.

Two weeks ago, the Baath Party (TIME, Nov. 22) seemed firmly in control. The country's non-Baathist President, Field Marshal Abdul Salam Aref, seemed a mere figurehead, kept on for his prestige and popularity. Then an internecine conflict erupted between Baath's antiWestern, anti-bourgeois and anti-Aref radical wing and a more conciliatory moderate faction. Rushing in from neighboring Syria, the Baath Par ty's home base, the party Central Com mittee under Michel Aflak appeared to settle the matter by exiling the leaders of the opposing factions.

Although Syrian-dominated, the par ty leaders took charge in Iraq, placed Aref under palace arrest and turned Baghdad over to the National Guard, a Baath-led outfit for which the regular army has contempt. When the Baath bosses overconfidently released Aref a few days later, he promptly joined with angry fellow officers to head a coup.

At dawn one morning last week, the army attacked Baghdad with six infantry battalions, supported by armor, artillery and jets. Though the National Guard had no heavy weapons, they fought desperately, lost hundreds of men. Three days after the revolt, Baghdad was in Aref's hands.

Since the Baath Party is Nasser's arch enemy, the coup was at first hailed in Egypt as pro-Nasser. It was also denounced in Syria as anti-Baath. Both conclusions may be premature. The coup looked more like a military than a political affair, designed to purge Iraq of Baath elements who had had the temerity to downgrade the army in fa vor of the National Guard. Though he packed the Syrian Baath leaders off to Damascus, Aref included in his new Cabinet nine moderate Baathists.

Still, the Middle East being what it is, Aref may well join with Nasser, an old friend, to overthrow the Baath leader ship in Syria. Even more likely, the Baath leadership will try to overthrow Aref. Just about the only certainty in the situation is that there is bound to be another coup, in Baghdad or in Damascus, if not both.