Opinion: The Real Majority

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Scammon and Wattenberg also challenge the assumption by some Republicans that a full-blown Southern strategy could succeed. Nixon received less than one-fifth of his 1968 electoral votes from the South: "Just let the voters feel that their President is trying to outbid George Wallace in the South and watch those slim, non-Southern pluralities melt all over the nation . . . The last Republican presidential aspirant who waged a Southern strategy reveals how successful that approach is. Barry

Goldwater, in 1964, carried five Southern states and Arizona."

Nixon faces another pitfall. "Presidents get elected by occupying the center territory," Scammon and Wattenberg argue. "But once they are inaugurated, it is no simple matter to stay there." The authors suggest that Nixon increasingly will have to decide issues on the basis of what is best for the nation, not for the right or the left. In so doing, he erodes his support on one side or the other and, over the long run, both.

In 1972, Nixon will enjoy all of the obvious campaign advantages of an incumbent. But, say the authors, "his popularity seems somewhat hollow, a popularity that is extremely vulnerable to a bad turn of events. If the Democratic candidate in 1972 is a man of the center, he may do very well in a personality versus personality contest."

In any case, Scammon and Wattenberg suggest that the successful candidates in most races will be those who re-examine their language and move closer to the "real majority." For all the crossfire of "bigot" and "fascist," Scammon and Wattenberg conclude, "We recommend to would-be leaders of the people that they trust the people and listen to the people before leading the people."