Common Market: Will Harold Rat?

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When the door to the European Common Market was shut, Britain was pounding on it. Now that it is slightly ajar, Britain seems to be shrinking back. As representatives of the Six conferred in Brussels last week, they were working on the assumption that a first meeting with Britain and the other applicants (Norway, Denmark and Ireland) would take place before summer and that full-scale negotiations would begin by autumn. It was further assumed that the four applicants would become members by January 1973. All these assumptions, however, could prove false.

Though all three of Britain's political parties have publicly endorsed joining the Market, one recent poll showed that only 26% of the electorate want to do so. Opposition to British entry has grown because of the disillusion caused by two French vetoes, by Britain's sharply improved trading position, and above all by the fear that Britain's share of the Market's costly farm support program would imperil the nation's recent balance of payments surplus. Last month that opposition was stiffened by a White Paper published by Prime Minister Harold Wilson's Labor government itself.

According to the paper, EEC subsidies to Continental—mainly French—farmers might drive up British food prices by 18-26%, and cost of living by 4-5%. The added burden on Britain's balance of payments, it predicted, might run anywhere from $240 million to $2.6 billion per year. And what would Britain gain in return? A spurt in growth of British trade and industry from the ''dynamic effects" of the European market, but a spurt that is "unquantifiable" and impossible to measure in advance. The most convincing argument for British entry, however, is the EEC members' significantly higher economic growth rate (4% v. Britain's 2.5%).

The Housewife's Protector. Britain's opposition Conservative Party understandably wondered whether Wilson might use the White Paper as a way to wiggle out of his promise to enter Europe. With elections expected by next fall or by the spring of 1971 at the latest, would Wilson perform an about-face on Europe in order to portray Labor as the protector of the British housewife's food budget? Sure enough, at a recent party rally Wilson accused the Tories of favoring entry at any price. The government, said Wilson, would be more judicious: "If the disadvantages appear excessive in relation to the benefits, decision would be against entry."

The Tories were enraged. Declared Conservative Leader Ted Heath, glaring at Wilson in the House of Commons: "The country and the world have only one question to ask him: Is he or is he not going to rat?" Wilson insisted that his position had not changed. But Labor is trailing the Tories by 7% in the polls, and the suspicion remained that if the party's position does not improve before the elections are held, Wilson might be tempted to exploit Britons' profound doubts about entering Europe.