The Nation: How Ford Won and Reagan Lost

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Spencer spent more than two weeks in New Hampshire. Among other things, he supervised volunteers who phoned about 60,000 Republican households. The volunteers identified some 27,000 voters as not sold on Ford and mailed them literature about him; another 40,000 who supported him got follow-up calls on election day urging them to vote. At Spencer's urging, Ford visited Dover, Keene and Portsmouth the week before the election and sharpened his criticism of Reagan to attract the cities' many moderate Republicans. Ford portrayed him as an extremist and predicted that Reagan, if nominated, would lead the party to defeat in November.

Though many Republicans agreed, the victory margin was uncomfortably close, partly because former President Nixon's visit to China was, in Ford's words, "probably harmful" (see story page 22). The trip reminded many Republicans of their distaste for Ford's pardon of Nixon. Spencer claimed that Nixon's jaunt cost Ford three or four percentage points, though neutral experts thought the trip had far less effect.

After the victory, Ford pros like Callaway and Rogers C.B. Morton huddled with Staff Chief Richard Cheney to assess money allocation for primaries (no changes made) and to review Ford's schedule of travel (spare but steady). Callaway reported that because of the New Hampshire results, volunteer work was already up in Florida (12,000 phone calls in a day compared with 10,000). Ford spent the weekend in Florida trying to increase the momentum of his campaign. His previous visits—totaling four days, a quarter of Reagan's scheduled time in the state—have had great impact. The President has erased most of Reagan's 2-to-1 initial lead in the polls. Moreover, Ford has partly overcome Reagan's organizational advantage, again largely because of the skillful Spencer. Among other things, Spencer dispatched his former California partner, William Roberts, to pull together the Florida campaign committee, which once was a shambles. He virtually took over the operation, recruiting county chairmen, firing up volunteers, and organizing mass mailings of campaign literature to Republicans. Now the contest is rated a tossup.

In Florida and other primary states. Ford doubtless will make more use of his wife, a crowd-pleasing campaigner. She soloed in Florida last week, giving brief speeches in four cities and shaking hundreds of hands. At a rally in Jacksonville, she encountered about two dozen demonstrators protesting her support of abortion. Otherwise her reception was friendly; some voters even wore buttons saying BETTY'S HUSBAND FOR PRESIDENT. Nancy Reagan has been campaigning for her husband since January.

Unlike Ford, Reagan is making changes in his campaign plans. He was considering raising his $500,000 budget for Florida, chiefly to buy more time on television, where the former movie star excels. In addition, he planned to step up his attacks on détente, on Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and proposals that the U.S. eventually turn over control of the Panama Canal to Panama. A loss in Florida would probably kill his campaign. But no matter what the pressure on him, Reagan has no plans to take off the gloves and attack Ford directly.