Bizwatch

Shoppers Cool on Yule?
Europe's Christmas shopping season may be a bit less than merry this year. The overall economic outlook is suddenly taking a turn for the worse, as the rising euro chokes growth, and business and consumer confidence across the Continent is weaker than was expected even two months ago. Retailers in Britain are bracing for the worst December in a decade, according to a survey released last week by the Confederation of British Industry; just 12% said they expect sales to be good. In France, shopper sentiment has also slid sharply since September. Some countries' consumers seem to be feeling more gift-happy than others (see chart). But if demand is skimpy, the biggest casualty, along with retailers, could be the toy industry, which does as much as half of its business in the Christmas season. Denmark's Lego says it expects to lose about 3250 million this year as falling sales and prices force it to cut back production. At London megastore Hamleys, Bratz dolls and some electronic games are moving, but buyer Sue Porritt says the market overall "is looking tough." But not all are gloomy. Merchandise featuring jumping mouse Diddl is leaping off the shelves in France and Italy as well as its native Germany, even though the firm behind it, Depesche, does no advertising. And sales at Germany's Playmobil are up more than 10% so far this year. But sales executive Andrea Schauer says people everywhere are postponing Christmas purchases to later and later in the season "and at some point time runs out."

Indicators
For Sale by Owner
Twenty-three years after releasing the first commercial personal computer, IBM is reportedly discussing the sale of its PC business. China's Lenovo Group is said to be a likely buyer at a cost of $1-$2 billion. IT research group Gartner predicts that low growth and profits will force three of the world's top 10 PC vendors out of the market by 2007.

Glowing Review
The U.S. Motion Picture Association hailed the suspended one-year jail term meted out in Japan to Yoshihiro Inoue for illegally sharing via the Web the film A Beautiful Mind. The group called it "a judicial milestone not only in Japan, but globally."

Remember Barings?
Traders around the globe felt a familiar shiver when China Aviation Oil of Singapore disclosed that it had lost $550 million in derivative trading and was near bankruptcy. The firm had wrongly bet — and redoubled — that oil prices would decline.

A Sharper Picture
The future of high-definition TV (HDTV) got some focus when four Hollywood studios (Universal, Paramount, Warner Bros. and New Line) agreed to release titles in the HD-DVD format. Sony, backer of the rival Blu-ray format, was taking solace in its forecast that the European market for sets had been seriously underestimated: HDTV adoption could reach 20 million by 2008 — four times previous industry estimates.

Drug Delay
A U.S. regulatory panel unanimously rejected Intrinsa, Proctor & Gamble's testosterone patch that claims to be a female version of Viagra for some menopausal women. The panel wanted more data on long-term health risks before letting the product go to market.

The Bottom Line
	Those who think that Euro Disney can be turned around and run a profit should stop deluding themselves
		LAURENT VALLEE, fund manager at Richelieu Finance, as Disney predicts its Euro parks will continue to lose money