On The Stump Behind Bars

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ailed Fatah chief has put a major crimp in hopes for a smooth transition of power in the wake of the death of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat. Until last week, Mahmoud Abbas — Arafat's longtime P.L.O. deputy who has the backing of the Central Committee of Fatah, the most powerful Palestinian party — seemed likely to roll up a big victory in the Jan. 9 election for Palestinian President. But last week Marwan Barghouti, who is serving five life sentences in an Israeli prison for his part in deadly shooting attacks early in the four-year intifadeh, announced his candidacy for the job too. Barghouti, a former moderate who now represents the radical wing of Fatah, has much greater support among ordinary Palestinians than the more moderate — and more aloof — Abbas does. At 45, Barghouti also has the backing of younger Fatah leaders who are pressing for longtime Arafat confidants like Abbas, 69, to reform the corrupt regime. Barghouti's candidacy threatens to produce a major split in Fatah that might lead to violence if an election loser challenges the results.

But is Barghouti a serious candidate, or has he simply thrown his hat in the ring as a bargaining chip to win his release? People close to Barghouti tell TIME he decided at the last minute to renege on a deal not to run, dismayed at failing to win promises from Abbas to nominate people from Barghouti's camp for top jobs in a new administration and to push Israel for his release. A senior U.S. State Department official tells TIME he believes that Barghouti wants to leverage his threat of running for his own interests. Since Abbas controls the apparatus of the P.L.O. but has little legitimacy on the street, Barghouti could be in a strong position to demand his own release.

Israeli officials insist they will not free Barghouti — even if he stays in the race and wins the presidency. Israeli Police Minister Tzahi Hanegbi said last week that Barghouti would remain in jail "for 100 years." But agents in the Shin Bet, Israel's domestic security service, tell TIME they believe there's a chance that if Barghouti is elected the next Palestinian President, international pressure will force Israeli political leaders to go against the security service's advice and release him.