National Affairs: KEY STATE-NEW YORK

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IN any presidential election, the greatest prize among the 48 states is New York (45 electoral votes). This is the situation in the Empire State:

Geography: New York is divided into three parts. The city (comprising five counties), its suburbs (three counties) and "upstate." The city is overwhelmingly Democratic, the suburbs and upstate heavily Republican. New York elections are decided by which area goes its way by the biggest margin. The city's counties (called boroughs) are themselves divided (Manhattan, The Bronx and Brooklyn are Democratic; Queens and Richmond are Republican), but the net result is almost always Democratic. The politicians' rule of thumb has been that a Democrat who goes over the wall from New York City with a 500,000-vote margin will carry the state. There are indications in 1952 that this figure is out of date and that the Democrats will have to get a city plurality of 600,000 or better to carry the state.

History: New York's political history is as divided as its political geography. From the end of Grover Cleveland's second term to the beginning of Franklin Roosevelt's first (36 years), it went Republican in every presidential election except 1912. In 1932, the state switched back to the Democratic side in the presidential race, and stayed there through all of Franklin Roosevelt's era. In 1948, Tom Dewey carried it only because Henry Wallace's Progressive Party siphoned off 500,000 votes that were mostly Democratic. Dewey's margin in carrying the state: 60,000. New York now has one Democratic Senator (Lehman), and one Republican (Ives). Of the state's 45 U.S. Representatives, 23 are Democrats, 22 Republicans.

1952 Registration: New York is the only state where citizens must register for every election (except residents of communities under 5,000 population, which have permanent registration). For this reason, registration figures mean much more in New York than in other states. In New York City, 95% of those who register also vote. Biggest gains in this year's registration came in areas which normally vote Republican. In the "southern tier," the ten counties lying along the Pennsylvania border, the gain was 18%, in Republican Queens it was 21%, in Nassau, biggest of the suburban counties, 52.7%. In important Democratic areas there were only slight gains, and even some losses.

The gains are partially explained by the fact that the population of major Republican areas (e.g., Nassau and Queens) has increased greatly, while the population of Democratic strongholds (e.g., Brooklyn) has not. Most of the new residents of these G.O.P. districts moved from Democratic areas. A fascinating question for political analysts : How many of the movers will keep the political coloration of their old district, and how many will take on the complexion of their new home? The long experience of Nassau County indicates that new voters there are Republican in the same proportion as old voters, i.e., 70%.

Increased population does not explain all of the gain in Republican areas. In Manhattan, where there has been no great change in population, registration increased in most election districts that went Republican in 1948, remained static or fell off in most of the Democratic districts.