Republicans: The Man to Beat

• Share

Suddenly, like a brush fire racing out of control, the word crackled among informed Republicans: Goldwater's almost got it.

It seemed hardly possible. Here was Arizona's Barry Goldwater, who only a few weeks ago appeared to be flat on his back in his quest for the G.O.P. presidential nomination. He had been counted out because of the supposed political effects of John Kennedy's assassination and Lyndon Johnson's accession to the White House. He had been counted out as he campaigned about the country seeming to hate every minute of it and, entirely too often, shooting from the lip. He had been counted out as the polls showed his popularity dipping drastically. And he had been counted out after his loss in the New Hampshire primary.

Yet as of last week, Goldwater was clearly the man to beat in San Francisco come July. This was what top Republicans finally realized, having taken out their pencils and started totting up the only thing that really counts at a convention. It took them quite a while to get around to the tallying process, but there were several reasons for the delay: — There was the national preoccupation with primaries, which usually make more headlines than delegates. All Goldwater actually lost in New Hampshire was 14 delegates, a mere handful. When he won in Illinois, there were ohs and ahs about the size of the vote for Maine's Senator Margaret Chase Smith, about the write-ins for Henry Cabot Lodge and Richard Nixon. Yet it was Goldwater who gathered up at least 47 delegates. Last week in Massachusetts, Native Son Lodge amassed a 69,000-vote write-in, against only 9,000 for Runner-Up Goldwater. In Pennsylvania, Governor William Scranton piled up some 225,000 write-ins to break the record of 183,000 set by Jack Kennedy in 1960. Lodge got an impressive 80,000 in Scranton's home territory, Nixon received 37,000 and Goldwater was a poor fourth with 33,000. All but unnoticed was the fact that Goldwater snatched a few delegates from beneath the noses of the native sons—two or three in Pennsylvania, four or five in Massachusetts.

> There was the obsession with polls. For months, surveys have shown Goldwater's stock down with "rank and file" Republicans and with that elusive voter classified as "independent." This week the Gallup poll reported Lodge favored by 37% of Republicans, Nixon by 28% , Goldwater by 14%, Rockefeller by 9% and Scranton by 4% . Such figures have fooled a lot of people into thinking that Goldwater was through. But no pollster has ever nominated a presidential candidate, and Goldwater has been and remains the favorite of G.O.P. professionals—the people who go to conventions.

> There was the generally muddled Republican situation. With the party's highest prize up for grabs, the G.O.P. presidential contest should have been a rousing, issue-sharpening affair. Instead, it has turned out to be a thumping bore. Then President Johnson's rising popularity seemed to make the whole show academic. Ironically, Goldwater gained strength from his party's defeatist attitude. Since no Republican had a chance against Johnson anyhow, the argument went, why not let the party's conservative wing have the nomination it has been demanding for so long?