Business: WESTERN EUROPE: MARK OF WORRY

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SINCE the easing of last November's European monetary crisis, the calm in world money markets has seemed almost uncanny. The French franc has suffered only minor buffeting on currency exchanges. Last week the British pound rose to a six-month high of more than $2.39, lifted by the news that Britain's perennial trade deficit narrowed to practically nothing in January. The dollar, buoyed by last year's slight surplus in the usually deficit-ridden U.S. balance of payments, is stronger than at any time in recent memory. Yet amid such outward stability, signs of skittishness abound.

The price of gold in Paris last week shot to well over $46 per oz., the highest in two decades. That upsurge reflected, more than anything, smoldering fears about the future of the franc. The spark that started the rise, however, was President Nixon's call two weeks ago for "new approaches" to international monetary problems. It was only an offhand remark, but French speculators misinterpreted it as a sign that Nixon might favor a rise in the price of gold or some basic revamping of currency values. When the President discusses money matters in Europe this week, he will find that many financial leaders fear that the speculators will open a new "spring offensive" that could upset currencies in the months ahead.

Tight Corset. As Robert Ball, TIME'S European economic correspondent, reports: "The root of last fall's crisis, the fundamental imbalance between the robust West German mark and the weak French franc, has not been lastingly removed. The tight corset of exchange controls is all that is holding the franc up. Though the controls have impeded any further outflow of francs from France, Paris has failed to lure back the bulk of hot money that it had previously lost. In Europe, the skepticism about France's chances of avoiding devaluation is widespread."

There is little evidence that the disparity between the mark and the franc will end soon. The continuing West German economic surge, which underpins the mark's strength, goes against classic economic theory. Rapid economic growth should almost inevitably produce much higher export prices and the demand for more imports, both of which are damaging to a country's trade position. Yet Bonn has managed to keep its economy expanding with little inflation. West German Economics Minister Karl Schiller said in his annual report that the country's production grew by almost 9% in 1968 and should expand by another 6.5% in 1969—with inflation accounting for barely 2% of the rise in each year. As a result of that performance, the Germans registered a trade surplus of $4.6 billion last year and wound up with $10 billion in gold and monetary reserves, compared with France's $4.1 billion.

Reverse Image. One reason for Germany's trade prowess is that its export prices have remained essentially the same since 1964, while those of the U.S., Britain and Bonn's five Common Market partners have increased by an average of 7 %. If Bonn were to peg the obviously undervalued mark at a higher price, it would relieve the competitive imbalance by making German exports more expensive and imports cheaper. Schiller, who still hopes to avoid revaluation, predicts that various other measures will help pare West Germany's trade surplus to $3 billion this year. Even that may not be enough to ease the monetary pressure.