United They Stand

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Shahob Karim's farm in Chamadubez, a Kurdish village in northern Iraq, is a picture of pastoral tranquillity. Sheep loiter in the fields, a cow dozes under a tree, and children in bright traditional dress play in the shade of a mud house draped with violets. Yet Karim, his wife and six children are ready to flee from their farm at a moment's notice. They listen intently to the daily radio news bulletin, waiting for word that a U.S. assault has begun.

The Karims have run from Chamadubez four times in the past 11 years. The Zaibadninan River that feeds their farm also divides Iraq's Kurdish-controlled territory from that controlled by Saddam Hussein, making Chamadubez the perpetual front line in Baghdad's military confrontations with its Kurdish opponents. If the U.S. attacks, then Chamadubez will likely become a battleground again and the Karim family will flee.

The prospect of a second Gulf War makes all Iraqis anxious, but that anxiety is especially great among the 3.5 million Iraqi Kurds, who live under the protection of a no-fly zone imposed by the U.S., Britain and France at the end of the Gulf War in 1991. The return of arms inspectors to Baghdad hasn't eased concerns that war is imminent. The Karims are prepared for it if it means an end to the Baghdad regime. "Every Kurd wants Saddam to be toppled and killed," Karim says.

What Kurds have disagreed about in the past is who should run the largely autonomous Kurdish zone when Saddam is gone. The de facto state is split between the two main Kurdish groups: the Iranian-backed Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (P.U.K.), led by Jalal Talabani and based in Suleimaniyah, and the Salaheddin-based Kurdistan Democratic Party (K.D.P.) founded in 1946 by Mustafa Barzani and now run by his son, Massoud. Despite only nominal differences in ideology, the two groups run separate governments in their respective halves of the Kurdish zone and their constant bickering had ruined hopes for stability.

Given this schism, Kurds have made remarkable progress in reasserting their cultural and political identity. Children now study Kurdish, a language discouraged by Saddam, in school. Political parties once prohibited by Baghdad operate freely, newspapers publish relatively free of censorship, and two Kurdish satellite-TV channels broadcast around the clock. Many Kurds worry that these hard-won gains will be jeopardized after Saddam's overthrow.

Iraqi Kurds aren't pushing for an independent state. With Washington anxious to appease allies like Turkey — which fears a Kurdish state carved from Iraq would encourage ambitions for independence among its own Kurdish population — many Iraqi Kurds believe a federal structure is preferable. They will make that case at a long-delayed meeting of exiled opposition groups in London early this month. "Declaring a Kurdish state in these circumstances is tantamount to political suicide," says Sami Abdel-Rahman, a K.D.P. deputy prime minister.

Hoping to win favor with the U.S. once the Baghdad regime is toppled, the K.D.P. and P.U.K. are trying to present a united front. In contrast to the Gulf War — when the Kurds were encouraged to rebel only to be abandoned by the first Bush Administration after they did rise up — Kurdish leaders are convinced that this time Washington is serious. Barzani says the U.S. has promised to protect the region in the event of an Iraqi attack. "One thing is for sure, there will be a regime change," says Barham Saleh, prime minster of the P.U.K. administration.

Both parties are eager to play a military role in that change, and realize this is impossible without reconciliation. As K.D.P. head of foreign relations Hoshyar Zebari puts it: "There are times when you must tidy your house before it gets blown over." The re-establishment of the Kurdish national assembly in Erbil in October has been the most significant step to date in that process.

If a U.S. attack comes, the Kurds will be fighting not only militarily against Saddam, but diplomatically, so as not to encourage Kurdish separatists in neighboring countries; and internally, to keep old rivalries at bay. It's a tall order, but in Erbil people are optimistic. "I believe in this unity, because today only unity is realistic," says Shahob Karim.