Too Close for Comfort

Vladimir Putin rapped on the microphone to get his ministers' attention. "Look over here and listen to me when I speak," he snapped. "If this is not interesting ... " He jerked his head toward the door, suggesting that the top officials gathered for this Security Council meeting should leave. It's not quite the calm, authoritative image the Russian President likes to project, but these days Putin often seems rattled. In an appearance on Russian TV last week, he warned of "clan struggles" that could plague the Duma, the lower house of the Russian parliament, after its crucial elections on Dec. 7. Putin's nervousness is strange, because his popularity has skyrocketed to 82% since the October arrest of oil baron Mikhail Khodorkovsky — the Russian public loves it when a billionaire gets his comeuppance. They are delighted too by the assault on Khodorkovsky's company, Yukos — last week Sibneft, another major Russian oil firm, announced that its merger with Yukos was on hold. So why is Putin anxious?

Because the Yukos affair has destroyed the balance of power between the associates of former President Boris Yeltsin — known as the Family — and the siloviki, the law- enforcement and security officials who are close to Putin. The Khodorkovsky crackdown split the Kremlin, pushing Putin even closer to the siloviki and unnerving the Family. One key figure associated with the Family, the head of the presidential administration, Alexander Voloshin, resigned a few days after Khodorkovsky's arrest. Another, Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, is so disaffected that his departure is only a matter of time. Speculation is rife that he may even run against Putin in next March's presidential race. But the immediate battlefield is the Duma. As one faithful Kremlin mouthpiece, journalist Mikhail Leontyev, remarked on state-controlled TV: "Who would have thought that real politics would suddenly emerge in this country?"

The Duma has not been known as a body in which real politics take place. Up to now it's been a docile extension of presidential power. A hostile Duma — with the power to block legislation and launch an impeachment motion — could pose serious problems for Putin, should he win a second term. "If we have a capable Duma, the President and parliament will be able to accomplish a lot together," Putin told his television audience last week when asked why he had yet to declare his candidacy. "But should we have a Duma mostly occupied with in-house squabbles ... the President will be tied hand and foot."

So the Kremlin has tightened media controls as the election nears. Mikhail Kozhokin, editor-in-chief of the major daily Izvestiya and a cautious Putin critic, recently resigned, a move widely believed to have been instigated by the Kremlin. The once independent NTV now prerecords most of its flagship Freedom of Speech talk show. And in September the government appointed a new board to run the country's most credible polling organization, the Russian Institute for the study of Public Opinion (VTSIOM). Fearing state control, the Institute's staff walked out. The new Putin-friendly VTSIOM recently announced a survey showing that the pro-Kremlin United Russia party was 18% ahead of its main rival, the Russian Communist Party (kprf). But the breakaway VTSIOM-a group published its own data giving United Russia only a 6% lead.

Still, it seems United Russia is likely to win a hefty majority. It has the might of the state behind it and faces a fragmented opposition. Russia's liberal middle class is largely represented by two small parties, the Union of Right Forces and Yabloko — both Western-oriented and led by somewhat faded boy wonders, Boris Nemtsov and Grigory Yavlinsky, respectively. Their rivalry has prevented them from establishing an alliance, so both parties may fail to reach the 5% mark needed to qualify for the Duma.

If the elections are true to past form, there will be some vote rigging. "In Moscow or in St. Petersburg, they rig the vote by 2% to 5%," Yavlinsky told TIME. "In some regions, they fix 50% of returns." "They" in this case are overzealous Putin supporters. Putin's freedom of maneuver in a second term depends largely on next week's results. An election that seemed so predictable just five weeks ago looks a little less certain now. Maybe that's why Putin's so nervous.