Dealing With the Devil

Rarely has politics made stranger bedfellows than the allies who came together in Serbia last week. Vojislav Kostunica — leader of Serbia's largest centrist party and the man who defeated Slobodan Milosevic in 2000 to become the last President of Yugoslavia — struck a deal with Milosevic's own Socialist Party (SPS) to secure the position of Serbian Prime Minister. Milosevic himself, on trial in the Hague for war crimes, will have no influence on government policy, but what many regard as an unholy alliance is prompting fears that Serbia is lapsing into its bad old nationalistic habits.

Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) forged the deal with Milosevic's SPS after December parliamentary polls produced an inconclusive result. The ultranationalist Serbian Radical Party, led by Milosevic's longtime ally and fellow Hague indictee Vojislav Seselj, emerged as the largest single party, with 82 of the 250 seats in the Serbian parliament. That's not nearly enough to form a government, but with 53 seats the dss was far short of a majority too. A coalition with the Radicals was out of the question because of their openly extremist agenda, so it was widely expected that Kostunica would turn to the reformist Democratic Party, which dominated Serbian politics until its chairman Zoran Djindjic was assassinated last March. Kostunica and Djindjic never saw eye to eye on reform, and the DSS leader failed to do a deal with Djindjic's successors, Zoran Zivkovic and Boris Tadic. Kostunica then teamed up with two smaller centrist parties and turned to Slobo's old gang, whose 22 seats gave him just enough to reach a majority.

Out of power and with their leader incarcerated in the Hague, the Socialists were considered a spent force. But Kostunica's embrace has brought them back to life. "We have proved that we are ready to take a constructive role in Serbia's future," proclaimed a grinning Milorad Vucelic, who runs the party in Milosevic's absence. The political price of the DSS-SPS alliance could be high. It will certainly cost Kostunica the cooperation of the Democrats. "The vote turned the clock back to Oct. 4, 2000," Tadic said, referring to the day before Milosevic was toppled in a popular uprising. Voters are expressing their distaste, too. Leaving the parliament building after the deal was announced, Kostunica ran a gauntlet of angry ex-supporters who denounced the pact. "I voted for Kostunica, but I never expected him to deal with Milosevic's cronies," said a disgusted Ljubica Zivkovic, 55, a grocery store owner from Belgrade. "I thought I'd never see their faces again."

Kostunica's alliance with the SPS will also increase suspicion in the West, on which Serbia depends for aid. Kostunica's mistrust of the Hague tribunal, which he sees as an American political tool, has already caused concern, and his new political friends are only likely to increase Western worries. The European Union has already voiced its discontent. "We in the E.U. have said very clearly [that] we want ... the democratic parties of Serbia to stick together and continue the process of reform," said E.U. foreign policy chief Javier Solana. Still, there's some hope that the West can do business with Kostunica. "The situation is complex, and one should not jump to conclusions," one Western diplomat told Time. "The real test will be actions, not personalities."

Serbia's first test comes in less than two months. By the end of March, the U.S. Congress will vote on whether to continue aid to Serbia. Kostunica will have to convince Congress that he's committed to democratic reform and that he's serious about arresting suspected war criminals. Given his fierce resistance to the tribunal in the past — and with his government dependent on votes from Milosevic's party — few expect to see people like Bosnian Serb General Ratko Mladic on their way to the Hague anytime soon. "We are highly dependent on Western aid, and if the U.S. stops supporting us, others are likely to follow," says independent foreign investment consultant Milan Kovacevic. "We should hope for the best, but expect the worst." Kostunica will need to decide which is more important, political expediency or economic necessity.