Explosive Strategy

Last month, the talk was of peace. Arnaldo Otegi, leader of Batasuna, the banned political party linked to the Basque terrorist group ETA, told a crowd of 15,000 at a velodrome in San Sebastián in the Basque Country: "[We] stand with an olive branch in our hand." Otegi, who has never condemned ETA's violence, was cheered as he declared it was time to "pluck the conflict out of the streets and bring it to the negotiating table." But this month, the news was of terror. ETA claimed responsibility for five small bombs that went off at Madrid gas stations on Dec. 3, and seven more devices that exploded almost simultaneously in towns strung north to south across Spain on Dec. 6. Is ETA preparing to lay down its arms or gearing up for another round of attacks?

ETA has been largely dormant outside the Basque Country since March 11, when Islamic radicals set off bombs on four Madrid-bound commuter trains, killing 191 and injuring thousands. The organization has also been gutted by more than 200 arrests over the past two years, including that of presumed leader Mikel "Antza" Albizu in France in October. "They are in the worst situation in their history," Spanish Attorney General Cándido Conde-Pumpido said last week. So why revive the violence now? ETA wants to prove it is still operational despite the string of defeats and the deepened revulsion toward terror since March 11. "Before the parties sit down at the table, ETA wants to show it's coming from a position of strength," says Gemma Zabaleta, a Socialist M.P. in the Basque parliament. "The I.R.A. planted bombs while the governments negotiated." But observers like Gustavo de Arístegui, a Popular Party member of the Spanish parliament from the Basque Country, cast doubt on such comparisons: he argues that the I.R.A. followed Sinn Fein's political lead, whereas Batasuna is subordinate to ETA. And the militants themselves seem to have spoken for violence.

Unlike many of ETA's previous attacks, which have killed more than 800 people over the past 30 years, this month's explosions were not intended to be deadly. The coordinated operations don't necessarily mean ETA is back at full strength. Spain's Interior Minister José Antonio Alonso said ETA probably used two separate itinerant "commandos" to plant the devices, and "they wouldn't need a great infrastructure to carry out acts of this kind." But ETA's reign of terror has undermined its appeal in the Basque Country; Batasuna's ranks were dwindling even before it was banned in 2002. And in

	Before the parties sit down at the table, ETA wants to show it's coming from a position of strength. The I.R.A. planted bombs while the governments negotiated. — GEMMA ZABALETA, Basque M.P.

October, Francisco Múgica Garmendia, ETA's leader during the late 1980s, was one of six imprisoned ETArras who called on their comrades to lay down their arms and join "the institutional and mass struggle" for independence.

Not everyone is ready for that; indeed, not even Otegi is. What he advocated in November was broad political talks among all groupings in the Basque Country, while ETA negotiates with the Spanish and French states on disarmament, prisoners and victims of violence. He hasn't mentioned olive branches since this month's bombings. The Socialist government in Madrid has rejected Otegi's notion that negotiations can begin without a renunciation of violence from ETA. Yet Basques who condemn ETA don't believe these bombings were meant to scupper talks. Rather, they were a way of keeping the radical base loyal while inching toward negotiations. "I'm convinced that ETA and Batasuna are in agreement over the proposal made [by Otegi]," says Alberto Surio, a political commentator at El Diario Vasco, a San Sebastián-based daily. "But it's a process that's going to take longer than we want. The boat is moving, but the boat is very heavy."

Batasuna would like to have its political ban lifted in time to participate in regional elections in May. For that to happen, the party will need to do more than just make hollow pronouncements. The government in the Basque Country is no keener than that in Madrid to see Batasuna back on the hustings. Few people still believe that ETA's fight does anything to advance the cause of greater Basque autonomy. Batasuna could help its cause most by realizing that, too.