Moon: BEYOND THE MOON: NO END

Few men have written about space with greater foresight and intelligence than Britain's Arthur C. Clarke. Now 51, and living in Ceylon, Clarke has published 40 books of science fact and fiction, including 2001: A Space Odyssey. In 1945, he made the first proposal for the orbiting of a synchronous communications satellite. In 1959, he made—and has just narrowly lost—a bet that man would land on the moon by June 1969. Here, at TIME'S request, Clarke weighs the consequences of man's first extraterrestrial venture.

NOT long ago, a critic of the space program suggested that as soon as the first astronauts came safely back from the moon, we should wind up manned flight and leave exploration entirely to robots. This may well rank as the silliest statement of a notably silly decade; to match it one must imagine Columbus saying: "Well, boys, there's land on the horizon—now let's go home."

Manned operations will be vital for the development of space industry. Even if—as is likely—most of the satellites for communications, meteorological, earth survey and other purposes will be automatic devices, we shall need human crews to install and service them.

Log-Canoe Stage

The moon is only the first milestone on the road to the stars. The exploration of space—by man and machine, for each complements the other—will be a continuing process with countless goals, but no final end. When our grandchildren look back at earth, they will find it incredible that anyone there failed to realize so obvious a fact of life.

Today's space technology, for all its glittering hardware, is still in the log-canoe stage. The next decade, therefore, despite all the spectacular achievements it will surely bring, will be a period of consolidation. Such a technological plateau occurred in 1945-55, when the results of wartime rocket research had to be assimilated before the first breakthrough into space was possible. We are now entering a very similar period; some time after 1985, the true space age will begin to dawn.

In our present state of almost total ignorance, the only prediction that can be safely made about the other eight planets and their 30-odd moons is that there is not a single one upon which unprotected men can live. Most of these places are almost unimaginably alien; but that very fact will give them immense scientific value. Moreover, in a very short time—historically speaking—we may be forced to exploit resources beyond the earth. This may become necessary or desirable even if, as seems probable, great progress is made in the production of synthetics and in exploiting the resources of the sea.

Planetary Garbage Dump

This does not give us a charter to continue turning earth into a planetary garbage dump; in an ecological sense, we must put our own house into order before we expand into others. But it is good to know that they are there—even though extensive alterations will be required to make them comfortable. Our generation has learned how to kill a world; the same powers can bring life to worlds that have never known it.