WHAT WITHDRAWAL WOULD REALLY MEAN

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Would a year or two more or less really make a significant difference? Most of the evidence suggests that it would. The speed and style of U.S. withdrawal are more than matters of face-saving. Asia has already accepted the fact that the U.S. cannot hold on to South Viet Nam. But if the U.S. showed its ability to withdraw in a measured way without hasty abandonment of South Viet Nam, Asian nations (and others) should see it as a sign that the U.S. remains a power with a sense of responsibility and constancy.

Is Communism Inevitable?

Gradual withdrawal would occur against Asian perspectives that are by no means all bleak or pointing inevitably to Communism. Much of the rationale for making the stand in Viet Nam was to curb Communist Chinese expansion. Partly because of U.S. resistance, that expansion has been halted. China's influence on the rest of Asia has been decidedly weakened, though this is largely because of the disastrous internal paroxysms of the Cultural Revolution. Devout Communist that he is, North Korea's Kim II Sung takes no orders from China while he is perfectly willing to accept its material aid. There is reason to hope that a Communist Viet Nam would also show considerable independence of her giant neighbor; it has in the past. Thus, Communist power in Asia would probably remain divided.

Even if South Viet Nam, Laos and Cambodia fall into the Communist orbit, a case can be made that the cause of democracy and freedom in Asia is considerably stronger than it was ten years ago. Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia have all enjoyed an annual economic growth rate of 8% or more; with the possible exception of Malaysia, these nations have also become more politically stable, while Indonesia, which once threatened to become a Peking satellite, has become aggressively anti-Communist since the overthrow of Sukarno. It may be that the U.S. presence in Viet Nam bought time for these states to put their own affairs in order and become more resistant to subversion because of their greater internal cohesion.

A careful U.S. withdrawal from Viet Nam might well stimulate Asian nations to take some belated measures to shore up their own defenses. Because of Britain's announcement that it would withdraw most of its forces from Southeast Asia in 1971, Singapore and Malaysia were inspired to end their political feuding and cooperate on joint air defense. Similarly, Malaysia and Indonesia, which almost came to war over territory in Borneo, have combined their forces to fight Communist insurgents in that same area. The Malaysians are also working with the Thais to root out the terrorists on both sides of their common border.

The Future U.S. Role