Republicans: Anchors Aweigh

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Psychological Influence. With Romney in at least partial eclipse, all attention now is focused on the two men who have most insistently denied interest in running—Rockefeller and Reagan. According to the latest Gallup poll, a ticket with Rocky for President and Reagan in the second spot would swamp Lyndon Johnson and Hubert Humphrey, 57% to 43%. The polls, of course, could change drastically by midsummer. As Psephologist Richard Scammon notes, in early 1964 "the polls were jumping all over the place between Lodge and Rockefeller. It's the same sort of volatile situation now."

Nonetheless, there is some question whether the G.O.P.'s conservatives can ever bring themselves to condone Rockefeller's refusal to back Barry Goldwater in 1964. Unless they do, the G.O.P.'s "dream ticket," which would bind up the old wounds, give the party strength in the South and the Northeast, and all but certainly capture the two essential states, New York and California, may never materialize.

Nixon, who remains very much in contention, could build up an irresistible momentum by winning all four primaries where he will have serious competition. But New Hampshire is a state where, as a Republican who has campaigned there says, "they vote on whims." Wisconsin and Nebraska could turn into bloody battlegrounds if Reagan's supporters make a determined bid. Oregon, the fourth pivotal primary, could see the belated entrance of Rocke feller, and top G.O.P. officials think that he can beat everybody there, as he did in 1964.

The frantic publicity surrounding the primaries often makes them seem disproportionately potent. Actually, the contested primaries will account for no more than 150 of the 1,333 delegate votes, and even if Nixon did win them all, he might still be denied the nomination—as was Democrat Estes Kefauver after winning seven primaries in 1956. Their chief influence, in fact, is psychological, and their major effect on the G.O.P. nomination is likely to be negative.

Of the five principal contenders, says Nixon, "two will probably fall by the wayside in the primaries." The two men most heavily committed to the primary route, and the likeliest casualties, are Romney and Nixon himself. That would leave Rockefeller, Reagan—and Percy. The Chicagoan professes to be uninterested, but is plainly ready and willing to step right up if his name is called—either for first or second place on the ticket.

Crowded Balcony. Behind Percy is a host of others whose names keep cropping up: Governors Claude Kirk of Florida, Raymond Shafer of Pennsylvania and Tom McCall of Oregon, who were unable to attend the floating convention; Senators Edward Brooke of Massachusetts, Clifford Case of New Jersey, Thruston Morton of Kentucky, John Tower of Texas, Peter Dominick of Colorado, Mark Hatfield of Oregon and Thomas Kuchel of California; House Minority Leader Gerald Ford of Michigan; and New York's Mayor John Lindsay, who also lacked the rank to get aboard the Independence but will be conveniently vacationing in the Virgins this week anyway.