Nation: The Mid East: Search for Stability

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U.S. officials are candidly baffled by the Soviet conduct in the past two months, especially in the Middle East. Moscow not only advanced its missiles in Egypt, but even after all of the fuss that created, it is still strengthening Nasser's air defenses in violation of the agreement, knowing full well that U.S. and Israeli intelligence detect every move. "This is deliberate—it is not clandestine," observes one Soviet expert in the U.S. Kremlin strategy raises all the old doubts about Moscow's intentions of abiding by any pact it enters.

Analysts are more worried now about the prospects for a nuclear arms limitations agreement with the Russians in the resumed SALT sessions at Helsinki next month. Yet if the Kremlin operates as realistically on its assessment of self-interest as in the past, Soviet behavior at Suez need not inevitably parallel Soviet behavior elsewhere. The U.S.S.R., after all, had flatly lied to President John Kennedy about its strategic missiles in Cuba in 1962, claiming that there were none and touching off a superpower confrontation. Yet a year later, the two nations were able to agree on a limited nuclear testing pact that apparently has not been violated.

Oldest Axiom

The Soviet Union genuinely needs to cut down its spending on strategic arms, which accounts for its continued interest in SALT. It is genuinely interested in some accommodation with Western Europe so that it will be free to cope with the Chinese menace on its Far Eastern borders, which at least partly explained Moscow's readiness to sign a nonaggression pact with West Germany. In the Middle East, on the other hand, it is relatively cheap to keep things tense as long as a major conflict with the U.S. can be avoided. As Columbia University Sovietologist Severyn Bialer says, Moscow knows that "a state of crisis is the only guarantee of a continued Soviet influence among the Arab states."

In short, one of the oldest of axioms about Soviet Russia remains very much in force: Moscow will move in anywhere it can find an opening, provided the risks are not too great. Showing symptoms of an alarmist view of Soviet intentions, the U.S. reacted strongly last week to the possible establishment of a Soviet submarine-servicing base in Cuba, a development that has been watched for months. A White House official said that the U.S. views the base "with utmost seriousness" and "at the right moment will take the action that seems indicated." Such tough language seemed to be dictated more by a desire not to appear compliant than by a real threat in Cuba. Yet there is no doubt that Soviet power is extending its reach around the globe (see THE WORLD). Moreover, it is doing so at a time when the Nixon Administration has moved sharply to reduce its commitments abroad.