The Nation: Viet Nam: One More Step

PRESIDENT NIXON had planned to go on national television with his long-awaited address to the nation announcing the next stage of troop withdrawals from Viet Nam. Instead, without formal notice, he commandeered a regularly scheduled 4 p.m. White House press briefing late last week to present the next step. On the existing schedule, U.S. troop strength will be down to 184,000 by the end of this month; Nixon subtracted another 45,000. Of that total, 25,000 will come out next month in a bring the boys home for Christmas gesture. Another 20,000 will be withdrawn in January. The day of U.S. ground offensives is over, the President declared. "American troops are now in a defensive position."

The announcement carried a minor Nixonian surprise of the sort that perhaps explained why he avoided the fanfare and panoply of a prime-time presentation. While most speculation had it that the President would up the rate from the present monthly average of 14,300, which he did, he was also expected to project withdrawals well into the spring or early summer. To be sure, if Nixon extends the new, higher withdrawal rate past the end of January, U.S. force levels will be down to less than 50,000 by June. But he stopped short of announcing that, and it was a shrewd move. There remains only one more season for possible enemy attack between now and the 1972 elections, so that by not committing himself to a large, long-range figure now, he gives himself greater flexibility in meeting that military threat if it should arise. Also, as he sees it, he retains a better diplomatic bargaining position. Nixon may be bluffing, but he is trying to persuade Hanoi that he will not proceed further with U.S. troop withdrawals if the North Vietnamese show clear signs of preparing a major offensive.

Three Factors. The winter season is always the time of heaviest infiltration from the North. If a big attack is to come by Tet in February, or even later, it must be preceded by an enemy buildup over the next two months. The President noted that the infiltration rate is lower than usual at the moment. He added: "We want to see, however, what the situation is in December and January, because that will determine what the activity will be in April, May, June and July on the battlefield."

Nixon promised a further announcement before Feb. 1. That would be based, he said, on three factors that have been his touchstones all along: the infiltration rate, the progress of Vietnamization and the course of negotiations in Paris. "We have not given up on the negotiating front," he insisted.

Whatever Hanoi does, Nixon is not likely to interrupt the withdrawals more than temporarily. For one thing, the cooled American temper on the war would probably flare up again should the pullout stop—and it would surely rise sharply if Nixon were to send new U.S. forces into battle. For another, the Administration may well be correct in thinking that as the U.S. presence dwindles, public opinion round the world will bear down progressively on Hanoi to repatriate the American P.O.W.s. Certainly the Administration intends to build up all the pressure it can.