The World: China: The Fall of Mao's Heir

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WITH mounting frustration, outsiders have sought for more than two months to make sense of portents from Peking suggesting an epic struggle for power in China. Last week China watchers from Hong Kong to Washington at last claimed to have some tangible evidence about the mysterious events. Only the barest dimensions of the conflict are discernible, but Western intelligence experts now believe that they have enough clues, including several from sources within China, to draw some dramatic conclusions:

> Lin Piao, war hero, defense minister and the man whom Mao Tse-tung personally anointed as China's future leader only 2½ years ago, is politically finished and very possibly dead as well.

> Of the 21 full members of the Politburo, only nine are now active; of the remaining dozen, six have dropped completely from view since the puzzling happenings of September.

> Chou Enlai, China's agile Premier, is the most powerful man in Peking after Mao, but he stands at the head of a Politburo decimated by purges and a government riven by myriad factions.

Lin's Sins. The climax of the struggle came in mid-September. In one frantic four-day period Chou En-lai abruptly canceled most of his appointments and the entire Politburo dropped from public view, possibly because its members had been summoned to an emergency session in Peking. China's military leaders also disappeared, including Chief of Staff Huang Yung-sheng, one of his deputy chiefs of staff, the chief of the air force, the First Commissar of the navy and at least twelve senior officers in the Peking military headquarters; they have not been seen since. After a British-made tri-jet Trident transport mysteriously crashed deep in Mongolia, the Chinese air force was grounded; not until seven weeks later were some essential flights resumed.

From sources inside China and probably fairly high in the Communist Party hierarchy, Western experts have learned that the top men in Peking—perhaps including Chou En-lai himself—have been convening secret meetings of party officials to relate the "sins" of Lin Piao. One such meeting of 200 Communist leaders was held in Canton three weeks ago. Lin's sins are said to include no fewer than three attempts on Mao's life over an 18-month period.

Last September, Lin was somehow found out, and he decided to try to flee China. He raced to a military airfield near Peking with his wife, his son and two key coconspirators: Mao's chief ideologue, personal secretary and ghostwriter, Chen Pota. who was purged from his fourth-ranking spot in the Politburo last fall, and Wu Fa-hsien, boss of the Chinese air force. The would-be defectors took off in a Trident equipped with a special radar designed to permit flights at very low altitudes. Wherever they were headed, they never made it. Lin's own daughter. Lin Toutou, betrayed the escape attempt, and the Trident was somehow shot down.