NEW ENGLAND: The Meanest Winter of the Century

Though the energy crisis will cause disruptions in the lives of most Americans, none will be hit as savagely as New Englanders. From the rugged woodlands of northern Maine to the gilded suburbs of southern Connecticut, the region faces what could be its meanest winter of the century. Devastating shortages of oil are likely to bring widespread factory shutdowns, soaring unemployment, electricity blackouts and genuine physical hardship. Echoing the view of many worried New England officials, John Drew, Massachusetts' energy adviser, says: "We are sitting on top of a disaster."

New England's painful vulnerability is largely an unalterable matter of geography. Possessing no major fuel resources of its own, and located at the extreme end of the supply lines from U.S. oil and gas wells in the South and Southwest, the region has had to buy fuel wherever it could be found. In the past, an abundant and cheap source has been foreign oil, which could easily be unloaded from tankers at the region's numerous ports. Thus New England has become extraordinarily dependent on foreign petroleum to generate its electricity, run its factories and heat its homes. Fully 90% of the region's energy needs are supplied by oil, v. a national average of 44% and about half of the oil is imported from refineries in Europe and the Caribbean, which draw much of their crude from the Middle East. The Arab nations' ban on oil shipments to the U.S. will reduce petroleum supplies about 18% for the whole nation —but in New England the shortfall could reach 30% or 40%.

Most frightening is the rapid shrinkage in stocks of heavy No. 6 "residual" oil, which is widely used to power electric generators and factory machinery.

Virtually all of the region's residual oil is imported from Europe, but with the ' slowing of the flow of Arab oil to the Continent, supplies from this source have been drastically diminished. John Buckley, vice president of Northeast Petroleum Corp., a Chelsea, Mass., wholesaler, believes that "a shortage of 50% in residual-oil supplies is quite possible by early next year."

To avoid utter chaos, many electric utilities are beginning to turn to coal.

Yet only about 10% will be able to complete the switchover from oil by February. Meanwhile, most utilities have reduced electric power by 5% between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. and are now working on plans for rotating blackouts to save fuel. That will increase the risk of crime and accidents, including fires from candles and oil lamps.

New Englanders will also have to struggle through the region's frigid winter temperatures with about a quarter less heating oil than normal. So many people are using woodburning fireplaces that top-hatted chimney sweeps are getting more business than they can handle. Fearful that some homes might run out of fuel entirely, Maine's Civil Defense Authority is establishing shelters in armories, high schools and grange halls, where residents can set up temporary living quarters. Trailer parks in New Hampshire, which house thousands of low income residents, are all but out of kerosene for space heaters. Vermont's Public Service Board Chairman William Gilbert worries that fuel supplies in his state could be halved and warns: "We could be in a save-the-women-and-children-first situation."