THE CAMPAIGN: Landslide in the Making

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When the two old friends squeeze in a round of golf these days, as they used to do when they were together in the House, Congressman Thomas P. ("Tip") O'Neill, leader of the Democratic majority, occasionally brings up a subject that can do little to help the game, or the morale, of President Gerald Ford. The Democrats, O'Neill is telling Ford, are going to win big, very big, in November.

All the evidence tends to support him. The main issue is double-digit inflation. Says one Midwestern G.O.P. leader: "There is no one alive who knows the answer to our economic problems, but the blame falls on Republican shoulders because we're in."

While Watergate has faded as an issue, the scandal is still hurting the G.O.P. badly. A score or more of attractive Republicans decided long ago to sit out this election. One notable example: Illinois' able Congressman John B. Anderson, 52, who last spring abandoned any thought of challenging Democratic Senator Adlai E. Stevenson III. In addition, Watergate tied a square knot in the purse strings of big G.O.P. donors. The Ohio party is nearly broke, and contributions to the Illinois party are off by 90%. Says Michigan's G.O.P. Chairman William McLaughlin: "A lot of people believe that you're a crook if you give and a crook if you take."

Veto-Proof. The opinion polls offer the G.O.P. no comfort. A Roper survey delivered last month revealed that only 21% of U.S. voters considered themselves Republicans (v. 48% Democrats and 26% independents). The Gallup poll, meanwhile, shows that the percentage of Americans who consider themselves Republicans has dropped from 28% in 1972 to 23%. Another Gallup survey out this week discloses that voters plan to back Democratic congressional candidates over Republicans by a margin of 54% to 35%.

If these feelings are transformed into votes on Nov. 5, the Democrats estimate that they could win as many as 50 new seats in the House, changing the current Democratic margin of 248-187 to something approaching 300-135. This would give the Democrats their largest majority in the House since the Depression year of 1936, when they pulled 56.1% of the vote and took 333 seats.

In the Senate, only 14 of the 42 Republican seats are up for election, and the Democrats have serious hopes of winning only three or four of these. But since the Democrats may well hold all 20 of their seats that are being contested, they could end up with a margin of around 62-38 in the Senate (it is now 58-42). There is even an outside chance that the election could produce a "vetoproof Congress," with the Democrats controlling two-thirds of both the House and the Senate.

In the 35 gubernatorial contests, the Democrats could add half a dozen statehouses to their 32. "Even if we don't make a net gain," says Robert J. Keefe, political director of the Democratic National Committee, "the worst we might do is trade'em Alaska and Oklahoma for California and New York. Hell, I'll make that trade any day!"