THE WORLD FOOD CRISIS

Monday, Nov. 11, 1974
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Since 1950 developing countries have expanded their farm lands by 35% and their yields per acre by roughly the same percentage. Their total grain production soared 78%, compared with 64% in the industrial nations. Much of the gain came in the late 1960s through the planting of new, high-yield strains of wheat and rice. The hybrids produced more grain per plant, and their short stalks made them far less vulnerable to wind damage. The development of these seeds was hailed as the Green Revolution. Within a few years, one-third of the wheat area and one-fifth of the rice area in non-Communist Asia were planted with the miracle seeds.

Then came 1972. Bad weather started to plague so much of the world's crop land that many experts conclude that the climate itself is changing (see story page 80). Harsh winters, droughts or typhoons cut output in the Soviet Union, Argentina, Australia, the Philippines and India. Off the coast of Peru, a change in ocean currents and overfishing decimated the anchovy catch, a major source of protein for animal feed. In Southeast Asia and parts of Africa, the peanut crop—providing mainly animal feed and cooking oil—fell far below normal. All told, the world's food output dropped for the first time in 20 years, down 33 million tons, from 1,200 million tons. Merely to meet the added demand of increased population and rising living standards it should have increased by at least 24 million tons.

The weather improved in 1973, but a new set of problems threatened food output, especially in the underdeveloped countries. Fertilizer was in short supply, and its price started to climb. Then came the devastating impact of the quadrupling of the market price of petroleum by the cartel of oil-possessing nations. Higher oil prices meant added costs for the farmer: pesticides, herbicides and nitrogen-based fertilizers are derived from petroleum, while the manufacture of all fertilizer requires much energy. The world price of nitrogen fertilizer jumped from 11¢ per Ib. in 1972 to 25¢ now.

These price increases critically undermined the Green Revolution. The hybrid seeds need great amounts of water, fertilizer and pesticide. If any of the three are missing, yields plunge, often below what traditional seeds would produce. After paying for their oil imports—up from $3.7 billion in 1972 to $15 billion this year—the developing countries had little left to buy the chemicals and nutrients that their high-yield, intensive farming requires. India, for example, can afford only half the fertilizers that it needs for maximum crop yields in 1974.

This year's harvests did not improve the situation. Instead of the bumper crops needed to rebuild stocks and bring down food prices, there were disappointing harvests in the U.S., Canada, the Soviet Union and much of Asia as a result of poor weather. Meanwhile, demand keeps going up.