Nation: A Sudden Vision of Peace

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Begin, like Sadat, preferred not to face the uncertain political and diplomatic consequences of a Camp David failure.

Those consequences could well have caused a thorough reshuffling of the entire deck of Middle East cards. The arguments by Arab moderates would be badly tarnished. The Soviet Union and "rejectionist" Arab states such as Libya and Iraq would gloat that they had long condemned Sadat's solo initiative as foolish and had warned fellow Arab nations against looking to the U.S. for satisfaction in their conflict with the Israelis.

Now Sadat can offer the two "frameworks," signed as they are by Jimmy Carter, as evidence of the benefits of working with the U.S. Sadat will point out, moreover, that years of relying on Moscow did not help the Arabs regain a single inch of land from Israel. The Camp David achievements could enhance Washington's influence in the Middle East just at a time when Moscow was beginning to exploit the situation in the general area. Now there is no chance at all of a rapprochement between Sadat and the Soviets. As a Russian in Cairo remarked: "Even if Sadat turns against the U.S., we would not accept him again. We would prefer to see him overthrown and to deal with someone else."

As an attempt to counter what will be a storm of unfavorable Arab reaction to the summit, Carter is expected to dispatch Special Ambassador Alfred Atherton to Saudi Arabia, Jordan and perhaps Syria to explain what happened in the Catoctin Mountains. It is also likely that the Administration will demonstrate its continuing commitment to Sadat. One possibility is that Carter will boost economic and military aid to Cairo, and possibly even sell Sadat 800 of the 2,000 armored personnel carriers that he has requested. By bolstering Egypt's armed forces, the U.S. hopes to enable Cairo to play a more active role in African regional affairs, such as supporting neighboring Sudan. That country's pro-Western government is worried about the increased Soviet and Cuban influence in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa.

Sadat's next steps in the Middle East will, to some degree, be influenced by Saudi Arabia. The Saudis were the silent partners at Camp David, for neither the U.S. nor Egypt can afford to ignore their views. Their bulging treasury supports Egypt's crippled economy, and their petroleum and financial reserves have served U.S. interests by tempering oil price hikes and helping support the weakening international position of the dollar. Sadat's journey to Jerusalem was publicly praised by the Saudis, though they had reservations about his chances for success. Because they are worried about the mounting influence of radicals in the Middle East, however, the conservative Saudis reluctantly endorsed Sadat's participation at Camp David in the hope that any peace progress would bolster the position of the moderates. But prior to Sunday night, King Khalid & Co. were running out of patience. Said an Arab official in Cairo of the summit early last week: "It is Sadat's last hurrah."

Stunning as the Camp David results were, from the Arab view the summit may still be Sadat's last hurrah. Once again Sadat has demonstrated remarkable courage and statesmanship in promoting the cause of peace, but if his name was mud in much of the Arab world before Sunday night, it is something even