SPAIN: AFTER FRANCO: HOPE AND FEAR

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For four days uncertainty mounted as the government refused to comment on Franco's condition; finally, the dictator's doctor announced that "in the course of an attack of influenza" he had "suffered an acute coronary crisis." Hoping to convince the public that Franco was indeed "recovering satisfactorily," as the bulletin claimed, the palace began issuing a steady stream of suspiciously cheerful news items reporting that Franco had "walked through his rooms," watched a film and talked animatedly with his family. It was even announced that he intended to preside over last Friday's regular Cabinet meeting.

Despite these sanguine bulletins, Franco's condition was deteriorating. Thursday night, the eleven physicians attending him announced that he had suffered a relapse and "early signs of cardiac insufficiency had appeared." As this news spread, bars and restaurants in Madrid began closing early; a few groups of youths roamed the capital's streets mournfully chanting, "Franco. Franco. Franco."

Meanwhile, the Cabinet met in a marathon nine-hour session, grappling with both the Sahara crisis (see story page 41) and the imminent succession. At the meeting Premier Carlos Arias Navarro continued the search for a consensus that he had begun earlier that week, when he had huddled with leaders of Spain's Establishment—the Movimiento National (the sole party allowed), the military and Franco's family. His goal: to gain enough backing to allow him to tell the enfeebled dictator it was time to step aside. Only the family members and some of Franco's closest and oldest aides refused to concur. When told about the doctors' announcement of Franco's setback, Arias apparently rushed to El Pardo Palace to get a signature on a document transferring authority to Juan Carlos. The doctors, however, stopped the Premier from entering the sickroom, warning that "it would kill Franco to take a pen in his hand now."

The transfer of power in a dictatorship is seldom smooth. Yet it is probable that Juan Carlos' authority will not be challenged immediately. "Although many people in the opposition will not accept him because of his close association with Franco," observed Centrist Politician Marcelino Oreja, "most Spaniards want to give him a chance." No one knows for certain, however, whether Juan Carlos has the courage to break with the "bunker"—the group of hardline rightists who were Franco's most loyal backers and can be expected to oppose any realistic political reforms.

The first clue to Juan Carlos' policies will be his choice of a new government. It is expected that Premier Arias, as a matter of form, will submit his own and his Cabinet members' resignations. A dour former chief of Spain's hated internal-security apparatus, Arias has little personal ambition. "I want to be Franco's last Prime Minister but not Juan Carlos' first one," he once confided to a friend. Nonetheless, if Juan Carlos urges Arias to carry on in office with his ministers, that will be interpreted by the left as a signal that Spain is not about to change very quickly.