SPAIN: AFTER FRANCO: HOPE AND FEAR

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The old Falange veterans, who fought under their Caudillo during the Civil War, feel a deep loyalty to the existing political structures. If the "bunker" denounces reformist measures as the work of Communists, these former soldiers might well take to the streets with rallies and demonstrations. The Communists and other leftists would probably respond with counterprotests and a wave of economy-crippling strikes.

If the new regime fails to prevent a clash between rival political groups, Spain's military commanders may feel compelled to step in. Although kept deliberately apolitical by Franco, the officer corps is believed to be solidly loyal to el Caudillo's plans for the succession. Unlike Portugal's officers, they have not been radicalized by exposure to Marxist rebels in a losing African colonial war. The new King, in fact, is reportedly popular with the officers.

Mot all Spanish officers are rightists. Many are known to be unhappy with the unpopular political task, imposed on the army by Franco only last year, of having to try and execute terrorists charged with killing policemen. There is a core of military moderates—officers who once studied at the High General Staff School under General Manuel Diez Alegria, who was abruptly sacked as army chief of staff by Franco in June 1974. Reason: Diez had openly advocated that the government ease its repression of dissidents and he was also being likened to António de Spínola, the Portuguese general who played a key part in toppling the fascist dictatorship in Lisbon. Anonymous senders even began mailing Diez Alegria monocles—Spinola's hallmark.

The world will be closely watching Spain for any sign of the "Portuguese malaise," the chaos and political turmoil that have plagued Lisbon since the overthrow of its dictatorship 18 months ago. Yet contagion seems unlikely. Thanks in part to Franco, who in the 1960s presided over the country's most rapid transformation in its history, Spain today has a much better base for a peaceful transformation to a democracy than its Iberian neighbor.

If Juan Carlos can manage his country through its post-Franco transition, Western Europe and the U.S. will welcome a more open and politically pluralistic Spain as a full participant in the Western community; it would probably be invited to enter the Common Market and even join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization—two bodies closed to it as long as Franco remained in power. The U.S. would like to continue a special relationship of more than two decades, enabling Washington to maintain its key air and naval bases in Spain, for which a new five-year accord has just been negotiated. No one, however, could possibly welcome a peaceful transition more than the Spaniards themselves. With memories and tales of Civil War horrors still vivid and haunting, there is nothing more feared by Spaniards—except for the terrorists—than a renewal of that fratricidal bloodletting.