SPAIN: VOTERS SAY 'S

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Any belt-tightening program is bound to weaken Suarez's popularity, but he has little choice if Spain is to retain its good international credit rating —and avoid eventual bankruptcy. In the view of most economists, the peseta will have to be devalued by 15% to 20%. But devaluation must be accompanied by anti-inflation measures if Spain's exports are to remain competitive abroad. That in turn means gaining agreement on wage restraints from the newly powerful left, which has served notice that it will demand tax and social security reform, the creation of new jobs, and a greater burden on Spain's privileged upper crust.

Suarez is aware of the problem and is known to favor a three-year stabilization plan. A spokesman for the U.C.D. declared last week that the fight to solve the crisis must have "the support of all Spanish political forces." That could be difficult to obtain. While the U.C.D. and the Socialists are not far apart in their support for Spain's mixed economy (with a sizable public sector), they could well differ on who should bear the burden of economic stabilization.

Suarez is also expected to press for speedy admission of Spain into the European Community. The election was a crucial hurdle in that respect. The nine present members have always insisted that a country had to have a democratic form of government before it could even apply. But the problems of Spanish entry may be complex. The main difficulty lies with the powerful farm lobbies of France and Italy, which will resist any concessions that might make Spanish products more competitive in the Common Market. Although some observers believe that Spain could become a member in two years, others argue that it might take until the early 1980s.

Another major task facing the Premier and the new Cortes is the writing of a new constitution. Exactly what shape it will take is yet to be thrashed out. "Every politician in Spain has a constitution under his arm," quipped Suarez the other day. The most sensitive issue involves defining the monarchy and its powers. Installed as King by Franco, Juan Carlos, 39, gained true dynastic credibility only after his father, Don Juan de Borbon, the Count of Barcelona and the late Alfonso XIII's rightful heir, formally ceded his throne rights last month. Juan Carlos' powers are far stronger than those of any other monarch in the Western world, since he can rule by decree. He has been a stabilizing and liberal influence. In praising the manner in which Spain conducted its elections, Secretary of State Cyrus Vance last week remarked that the King deserved the "greatest tribute" for his "skill and care" in restoring democracy.

But his prerogatives will inevitably be reviewed. The left will push for a constitutional monarchy, perhaps eventually even a referendum on the monarchy. The left also wants the Premier to be responsible to the Cortes rather than to the King, as is the case now. Predicts a diplomat: "Juan Carlos wants to preserve the monarchy. Since he is intelligent and a student of family history, he will be reasonable and not expect to hold on to everything."