Business: Fuel Forecast

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Coming: 70¢-plus gas

Motorists enjoying the balmy Indian summer driving weather that has persisted in many parts of the U.S. have sometimes had a shock when they decided to "fill 'er up." At some service stations, especially in the Northeast, NO GAS signs hung on the unleaded fuel pumps; other signs set limits on the amount a customer could buy. Almost everywhere, meanwhile, prices have been creeping up instead of slipping back as they usually do after the peak travel season.

The scattered shortages and climbing prices result from heavy demand. The summer bulge in gasoline use was bigger than expected this year, and it has stayed up because of the mild weather. In early November, for instance, consumption was as high as it had been in August. But production has dropped, because of breakdowns at some major refineries. To meet demand, companies have been buying gasoline from outside sources at premium prices, and passing their added costs on to the consumers.

Supplies of no-lead have been particularly tight because refiners find it costly to switch to lead-free production, and difficult to turn out fuel that meets the Government's minimum octane standards and still allows the new cars to run smoothly. To encourage increased no-lead output, as of Dec. 1 the Department of Energy will allow refiners to pass more of the actual costs of producing gas on to consumers, which could mean a further increase in prices from 2¢ to 4¢ per gal. In the past year, the average price at the major companies' stations has risen from about 62½¢ per gal. to more than 67¢ some Manhattan gas gougers now charge more than 90¢. Given the fact that OPEC is about to raise the cost of crude oil again, and that this may add 2¢ or so to prices at the pump, for most U.S. motorists 1979 will clearly be the year of 70¢-plus gas.